English Premier
2012-04-21 - Blackburn Rovers vs Norwich City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 21 April 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Blackburn Rovers
Football is a funny old game- a few weeks ago, Blackburn Rovers beat Sunderland 2-0 here and it looked like they were going to be safe in the Premier League, yet now they are close to drinking in the last chance saloon as their rivals all continue picking up points down the stretch.
Blackburn are 19th in the Premier League table and they now find themselves 3 points behind QPR in the final position of safety and with a vastly inferior goal difference. That is not the only issue as Bolton Wanderers are a one position and one point higher than Blackburn, but they have two extra games to play. Rovers have a 5-1-11 record at Ewood Park where they have scored 24 goals and conceded 32.
Since winning that game against Sunderland I mentioned, Blackburn have lost 5 straight League games and they have conceded at least 2 goals in each of those losses. They were beaten 3-0 at Swansea last week with a truly bad performance and one that will be hard to pick themselves up from. Blackburn have lost their last 2 games at Ewood Park, although they had picked up 7 points from their previous 3 games here.
Yakubu and Junior Hoilett should both be available after picking up knocks last week, but Grant Hanley is ruled out and Martin Olsson and Bradley Orr will need late fitness tests. Gael Givet is fit to play, but excused himself for not being right mentally last week and it is unclear what the future holds for him.
Norwich City
After all the good work Norwich City have got through this season, they were given a harsh reality check as to what can happen in the Premier League if you switch off when they were crushed 1-6 by Manchester City at home last weekend. Paul Lambert is likely to have demanded a response from that result and he will not allow his side to cruise down the stretch this season.
Norwich are 11th in the Premier League table and will still feel they can grab a top half finish if they end the season in the correct manner. They have a 5-4-8 away record this season, scoring 21 goals and conceding 31, which means only the sides in the top 6 have scored more on their travels so far.
While the defeat to Manchester City was a disappointing result, Norwich will point to the fact that they became only the third team to win at White Hart Lane in the week before that game. They had actually lost 3 consecutive away games in the Premier League before the win at Tottenham Hotspur.
Zak Whitbread looks set to miss yet another game with a calf injury, but James Vaughan could potentially return to the squad for the final 4 games of the season.
Head to Head
Norwich and Blackburn played out an entertaining 3-3 draw at Carrow Road earlier this season as the home side recovered from 1-3 down in the final ten minutes.
This will be their first meeting at Ewood Park since Blackburn recorded a 3-1 win in the Carling Cup last season.
Blackburn have won their last 3 home games against Norwich and are unbeaten in 5 here.
Prediction
It's getting to that time of the season when the layers begin pricing games on 'who needs the win more' rather than the prices teams would have been a couple of months ago. With that in mind, there is no way Blackburn Rovers should be a shades of odds against to win this game and a more reasonable price would be closer to 2.50/2.60 with the way they have been playing.
Blackburn will be desperate for the win as anything else is going to leave them in serious trouble of being relegated to the Championship, but I can't find any real angle to support them.
However, I have found an angle to go against them and that is for Norwich to expose the soft underbelly Blackburn have. Rovers have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 5 games and have regularly conceded that amount over the course of the season.
With Grant Hanley, Martin Olsson and Bradley Orr all out or doubtful, Paul Robinson may be overworked again. Norwich, on the other hand, scored twice at Tottenham in their last away game and have also reached at least 2 goals in games at Swansea, West Brom, QPR, Wolves, Aston Villa and Bolton Wanderers this season, so I don't see why Blackburn will be any different.
12 of the 17 visiting teams to Ewood Park have scored at least twice, some even in losing efforts, so that looks the best angle to approach this game.
One bookie has priced Norwich to score at least 2 goals at a standout 3.00, but they are too cheap to want to pay for advertisement on the site, so instead I will recommend the 2.75 offered by Ladbrokes or Betsson on this market.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Blackburn Rovers 2-2 Norwich City
