NBA Basketball
2012-04-18 - Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Wednesday 18 April 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
Could the inconceivable really happen and the reigning NBA Champions actually fail to make the Play Offs? The Dallas Mavericks (34-28) are currently the Number 7 seed in the Western Conference but they have just a 1.5 game lead over the Houston Rockets (32-29) who are on the outside looking in and only 2 games ahead of the Utah Jazz. That makes this game so very important for both teams.
The Mavericks have lost their last couple of games in OT to put themselves in this tough spot, and the next 4 days could be crucial in which they play 3 games. This is the one they have to be focused on as none of the games are easy, but a win here could just about put them into the post-season in what has been a tough year.
Houston themselves have fallen out of the Play Off picture down the stretch as they have lost 4 games in a row, all against teams rivalling them for these positions. Utah, Phoenix and Denver (twice) have beaten the Rockets who now think they need to win 3 of their last 5 to get into the Play Offs.
With games against New Orleans (twice) and the injury hit Golden State Warriors on deck, this game may not represent the same importance for the Rockets as it does for the Mavericks, although they will recognise what a win will do for them.
The Rockets are struggling in defensive situations, allowing 105 points per game over their last 4 losses.
Head to Head
Dallas have won the last 6 games in the series, including both that were played this season.
The Mavericks have won both against the spread this season to improve to 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series, winning the last 4 on the bounce.
Houston have lost on their last 3 trips to Dallas, and they are 1-2 against the spread in those games.
Dallas are 16-15 against the spread at home this season, Houston are 13-16-1 on the road.
Dallas are 20-23 against the spread as the favourite, Houston are 15-15 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Dallas are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Houston are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Prediction
I am going to take the reigning NBA Champions to get a big win on the board to put themselves in a position to at least take part in the post-season for the following reasons:
First, Dallas have dominated the recent series against their Division rival and I think they are playing better in recent weeks than their losses suggest, whereas Houston have really been struggling.
Second, Houston have struggled when it comes to revenging a loss, going 9-15 against the spread in this spot.
Third, the Mavericks are 6-3 against the spread in their last 9 home games overall.
The Pick :
Dallas Mavericks 101-95 Houston Rockets
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Dallas Mavericks - 4.5 Points @ 1.95
