NBA Basketball
2012-04-18 - Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Wednesday 18 April 2012 - Tip Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Milwaukee Bucks (29-31) know their season has now come down to six games as they trail the Philadelphia 76ers in the race for the final Eastern Conference Play Off place by 2 games. The 76ers have been struggling down the stretch so the Bucks cannot afford to take their eye off the ball in these 'easy' games as they face the Washington Wizards (15-46).
Milwaukee will have been very happy with the schedule makers that have allowed them to have three days off ahead of this game, time that has been a luxury in the lock out shortened season. The Bucks have 5 games in the next 8 days, culminating with a home one against Philadelphia so they will want to stay in touch before then.
Drew Gooden had been dealing with a sore back but he is good to go now he has had a few days to rest. Milwaukee will also look to the increasing chemistry between Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis down the stretch as they have combined for 38.4 points and 12.9 assists over the last 7 games for the Bucks.
Washington are in line to receive one of the better picks in the NBA Draft this season, a draft that looks loaded with talent. They have won 3 of their last 5 games overall, including a surprise one at Chicago although the Bulls were missing both Luol Deng and Derrick Rose in that one.
Kevin Seraphin has averaged 16.2 points per game in his last 10 for the Wizards, but the team will still be missing Trevor Booker and Nene down the stretch.
Head to Head
Milwaukee have won have all 3 games against the Washington Wizards this season, going 2-1 against the spread and averaging 111 points per contest.
The Bucks are 3-1 on the road against Washington both straight up and against the spread.
They are now 11-3 against the spread in the last 14 games in the series.
Washington are 10-19-1 against the spread in their home games this season, Milwaukee are 16-14 on the road.
Washington are 21-29-1 against the spread as an underdog, Milwaukee are 15-15 as the favourite.
Other Interesting Trends
Milwaukee are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games on the road.
They are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 11-1 against the spread in their last 12 games against a team that has won less than 40% of their home games.
Prediction
I am going to back the Milwaukee Bucks to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Milwaukee have dominated the recent games in the series and they are averaging well over 100 points against Washington this season, giving them the real edge here.
Second, the Bucks will have seen Philadelphia lose again yesterday and will be fully motivated and emotionally vested in this game to get a little bit closer to the 76ers. They will want to win their easy games to try and stay close before the game against Philadelphia next week.
Third, Washington are 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 home games and they are short-handed at the moment meaning there is more fatigue in their rotation.
The Pick :
Washington Wizards 95-106 Milwaukee Bucks
