Champions League
2012-04-18 - Chelsea vs Barcelona
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League Semi Final First Leg
Wednesday 18 April 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Chelsea
Chelsea come into the game as the big underdogs to get through to their second Champions League Final and I can't really argue with that considering who they are facing as well as their own form over the course of the season. Their place in this competition next season may very well rest on whether they can win it this season as they are struggling to get into the top 4 in the Premier League.
The team will have picked up some confidence from the fact that they have already reached their first Final of the season in the FA Cup thanks to an impressive looking, if a little flattering, 5-1 win over Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday. Chelsea are 6-2-2 in the Champions League this season, and they have won all 5 games they have played at Stamford Bridge.
They continue picking up the results under the guidance of Roberto Di Matteo, winning 9 of the 12 games the Italian has been in charge for, while only losing 1 of those games. The Blues have won 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions, but they must be a little concerned that they haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 5 since a 0-1 win at Benfica. Chelsea have won 6 of their last 7 at Stamford Bridge in all competitions.
David Luiz looks set to miss both games of this Semi Final after suffering an injury against Spurs. There are no other significant injuries in the squad, although it will be interesting to see how many changes Di Matteo makes from the team that took to the field on Sunday.
Barcelona
For all the plaudits this Barcelona team gets from all quarters, it is interesting to see that they are still 4 points behind Real Madrid in the race for La Liga, although they could cut into that lead when they entertain their old rivals on Saturday night. They look to become the first side to retain the Champions League in its current format, and they will look to emulate previous winners like AC Milan, Juventus and Manchester United to at least reach the Final the year after winning the competition.
Barcelona and Real Madrid have dominated the Spanish domestic League this season, and both are rightly amongst the favourites to win in Europe with the squads they have at their disposal. The Catalan side are 8-2-0 in the Champions League this season, going 4-1-0 away from home, and only AC Milan have managed to avoid defeat (twice) against them.
They have won all 5 games they have played in all competitions since a 0-0 draw in the San Siro against Milan, and have now won 14 of their last 15 games in all competitions since a 3-2 loss at Osasuna. Barcelona have won 7 of their last 8 games away from home in all competitions, and have scored at least 2 goals in all of those except the game at Milan in the Quarter Finals.
Gerard Pique and Dani Alves are both available for selection and Ibrahim Afellay is back in the squad. Seydou Keita has not travelled to London.
Head to Head
This is the first meeting between the teams since the famous scenes at the end of the 2009 Semi Final when Didier Drogba made sure everyone knew what he thought of the result.
On that occasion, Barcelona needed a goal in the 93rd minute to draw at Stamford Bridge 1-1, a result that saw them through to the Final on the away goals rule.
That game was actually the fourth tie between the teams in five season, and Chelsea have generally been successful here.
Chelsea have a 3-1-1 home record against Barcelona in matches taking place over the last 12 seasons.
Prediction
I think this game is going to have to go in a different way than the last time Chelsea played Barcelona back in 2009 as I don't believe they have the same faith in their ability to defend deep and often against Barcelona as they did back then.
That means there is going to be a different onus on the home side than there has been in previous meetings as they must have the mindset to at least take a lead over to Spain next Tuesday.
With that in mind, I think the game could be surprisingly a little more open than some might expect, especially if there is an early goal for the away side.
Barcelona have scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 9 away games in all competitions and only failed to score at Milan in that time, although they could have had a clear penalty in that game. They had also scored at least 3 goals in every away game in the Champions League up to that draw with Milan.
Anyone who watched the way Benfica played here in the last Round will be a little fearful for Chelsea, especially if they are as nervous as they were in that game. However, the Blues have scored at least 2 goals in all 5 Champions League games here and I expect they will look to push forward in search of a lead in this one, while also trying to take advantage of their size from set pieces.
Another stat that makes me think there will be goals in this one is the fact that the last 5 games Barcelona have played against English sides have all finished with at least 3 goals scored and both sides getting on the scoreboard, while the slight rain in London should make the pitch slick for Barcelona's passing style.
With that in mind, I think the Overs is the way forward for me.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Chelsea 2-2 Barcelona
