MLB Baseball
2012-04-12 - Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
United States: Major League Baseball
Thursday 12 April 2012 - First Pitch 2:20pm ET
7:20pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers (4-2) complete their four game series at Wrigley Field with chance to complete the sweep. The Chicago Cubs (1-5) have had a tough start to the new season, although they still have had some good starts in games, with the bullpen really struggling.
Milwaukee won 2-1 last night and have outscored the Cubs 16-10 so far in the series and now send Zack Grienke to the mound to build on his solid start to 2012. Grienke will be looking to improve his record on the road as that is where he really found it tough in 2011.
Grienke remains unbeaten at home as a starter for the Brewers, helping his team beat the St Louis Cardinals 6-0 in his first start of 2012, especially impressive considering how hot the World Champions bats have been at the start of this season. He only allowed 4 hits in that game and didn't issue a walk while striking out 7.
The pitcher is 5-6 from 13 starts on the road for the Brewers and he has a 4.70 ERA in those games. He was also punished in his only start in this ballpark last season, giving up 6 earned runs in under 6 innings pitched as the Brewers were beaten 12-7.
The Brewers missed Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Jonathan Lucroy were all missing last night with different injuries, but there is a big chance that all three will be back in the line up today.
Chicago have really been struggling with their bats in the opening 6 games of the season, while they have also had a hard time in the bullpen which has blown more than 1 game already. They could be set up for a big game as they send Matt Garza to the mound. He gave up just 2 runs from 6 innings in his opening game against the Washington Nationals, but the bullpen blew the win.
Garza won both home games against Milwaukee last season, although he did give up 5 runs from 6 innings in the first game at Wrigley Field. He is now 2-1 in his 3 games against the Brewers with a 4.35 ERA.
Head to Head
Milwaukee have won all 3 games in this series and they have now gone 10-2 in the last 12 games.
They have also now won 4 of their last 5 games at Wrigley Field.
Prediction
I do like the Milwaukee Brewers to win this game with a bit to spare behind Zack Grienke, but the layers have not been forthcoming with the prices just yet.
I like Milwaukee at the prices in offer to win this one on the run line for the following reasons:
First, they have been putting up a lot of runs in the series, averaging over 5 per game, and they should be able to take advantage of the Chicago bullpen if they need to.
Second, Zack Greinke is the better pitcher on the mound, despite his road struggles as a Milwaukee Brewer.
Third, the Brewers have had a fair bit of success at Wrigley Field recently and will be desperate to get the brooms out for the sweep
The Pick :
Chicago Cubs 3-6 Milwaukee Brewers
