NBA Basketball
2012-04-11 - Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Wednesday 11 April 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Houston Rockets (32-25) are the current Number 6 seed in the Western Conference, but they look like they could be a real danger in the post-season with a deep rotation and injuries beginning to clear up. They have a chance to put a bit more security in their Play Off berth as they face the Utah Jazz (30-28) who are currently 1.5 games out of the top 8 places.
The Rockets should be full of confidence having won all 4 games on a road trip over the last week, including stops in Chicago, at the LA Lakers and Portland. Goran Drajic has really shown what he is all about since taking over for the injured Kyle Lowry in recent games and he was named the West's Offensive Player of the Week after averaging over 20 points and 8 assists.
Lowry is back in the rotation now, earning his minutes off the bench, while Houston have really stepped up their defensive work, holding teams to 93 points or fewer in 3 of their 4 road games. They cannot take their eye of the ball as they now face 5 games against teams fighting to make it into the Western Conference Play Off picture.
The first of those games is against the Utah Jazz who split a home and home series with the San Antonio Spurs, struggling past a team that had left out Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.
Utah are 3-5 in their last 8 games coming into this one and they can't afford to have too many more losses if they really want to make it to the Play Offs.
Head to Head
The teams have split the season series 1-1 so far this season, both winning by double-digits on their home floor.
Utah have a good record in Houston, going 9-4 against the spread in the last 13 games in the series played here.
Houston are 18-10 against the spread at home this season, Utah are 11-17-1 on the road.
Houston are 16-11-1 against the spread as the favourite, Utah are 15-17-2 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Houston are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record on the road.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
Utah are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games as the road underdog given between 5 and 10.5 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the Houston Rockets to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Houston have usually fired when coming off a road trip of at least 7 days, going 6-1 against the spread in their next game.
Second, Utah have a 1-8 record against the spread in their games where they are considered the road underdog given between 3.5 and 6 points.
Third, Houston don't mind playing in games when they have recorded a win as an upset coming into it. They are 7-4 against the spread in this spot.
The Pick :
Houston Rockets 112-104 Utah Jazz
