NBA Basketball
2012-04-10 - Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Tuesday 10 April 2012 - Tip Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Miami Heat (40-15) have still got some ambitions of finishing with the overall best record in the NBA as they trail the Chicago Bulls by just 2 games coming into this one. They will also be looking to get a bit of revenge after being embarrassed the last time they faced the Boston Celtics (32-24) just last week.
The Boston Celtics have been one of the form teams in the NBA and have gained a stranglehold on the Atlantic Division which will mean they will be seeded either 3 or 4 in the Eastern Conference Play Offs. However, they will not want to lose the momentum they have built up as the regular season draws to a close.
Boston are 8-2 in their last 10 games and absolutely destroyed the Philadelphia 76ers in their last game to lead the Atlantic Division by 3 games over their beaten rivals and the New York Knicks.
Much of the success continues to come behind a stifling defense that has allowed 89.3 points per game this season. That has been even more impressive in recent games as they have held opponents to 81.7 points per game over the last 9 contests.
Miami themselves only scored 72 points in a loss to the Celtics last week, and there is no doubt that they want to make a statement in this game. Dwyane Wade should return to the rotation having missed the win over Detroit as the Heat have begun a new winning streak at home following their 17 game winning streak being snapped by Memphis last week.
The Heat are 5-2 coming into this game.
Head to Head
The teams have split the current season series 1-1 with 2 games left to play, although it is Boston who have covered the spread in both games.
Miami have won the last 5 home games against the Celtics, going 4-1 against the spread in those games.
Miami are 14-13 against the spread at home this season, Boston are 12-15 on the road.
Miami are 26-27 against the spread as the favourite, Boston are 12-10-1 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Boston are 2-6-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as the road underdog of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record greater than 60% at home.
Prediction
I have been thinking about this game for much of the day and have decided to back the Miami Heat to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Miami have played very well against Boston at home in recent games in the series, going 4-1 against the spread.
Second, it is a big revenge angle for the Heat who were blown out by Boston at the TD Garden, and they are 7-6 against the spread in this spot this season.
Third, Boston have lost all 4 games against the spread when considered the road underdog of between 6.5 and 9 points.
Fourth, I think the spread is a touch low considering the Celtics were set as 7 point underdogs against Chicago when playing the second of back to back nights and the Bulls were missing Derrick Rose.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 102-93 Boston Celtics
