NBA Basketball
2012-04-09 - Houston Rockets at Portland T-Blazers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Monday 9 April 2012 - Tip Off 10pm ET
3am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Houston Rockets (31-25) have been playing well in recent weeks to give themselves a real chance of making the Play Offs in the Western Conference as they hold a 2 game lead over the Phoenix Suns who are looking in. The Rockets are also beginning to get a little more healthy at just the right time of the season.
They face the Portland Trail Blazers (27-30) who are 3.5 games behind in the Play Off race and came off a disappointing second half collapse in a loss at the Milwaukee Bucks.
Goran Dragic continues his high level of play since the injury to Kyle Lowry- the PG scored 21 points in a win at Chicago last week and followed that up with 26 points in a win at the LA Lakers. He was ably backed up by Courtney Law who had a team high 25 points in a win at the Sacramento Kings last night, a win that allowed them to cruise down the stretch.
Lowry also returned to the rotation last night with 7 assists and it is likely that he is going to have to come off the bench today as he slowly gets back into the groove.
Portland will need to bounce back from a defeat at Milwaukee when they were outscored 62-31 in the second half, with the Bucks scoring 40 of the last 54 points in the game. The Trail Blazers were completely dominated on the boards in that loss and that is something they could be faced with again tonight.
Head to Head
Houston have won both games against Portland this season, now winning 3 in a row in the series both straight up and against the spread.
The Rockets have won on their last 2 visits to the Rose Garden and they are 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 games here.
Portland are 16-13 against the spread at home this season, Houston are 12-15-1 on the road.
Portland are 20-16 against the spread as the favourite, Houston are 14-14 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Portland are 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games as the favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Houston have lost their last 5 games against the spread as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their home games.
Prediction
I am going to back the underdog Houston Rockets to push Portland in this game for the following reasons:
First, Houston have a good recent record against the Trail Blazers, including wins on their last 2 visits to Portland.
Second, Portland have found it hard to get back against a team that has beaten them at home, going 3-6 against the spread in the position of revenging a home loss.
Third, I think the Rockets have been playing the better basketball of the teams in the last week and they are getting healthy, meaning they have a deeper rotation than their hosts. I had estimated the Rockets to be the slight favourites in the contest, so getting the points looks a little generous.
The Pick :
Portland T-Blazers 96-99 Houston Rockets
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Houston Rockets + 3 Points @ 1.92
