NBA Basketball
2012-04-09 - Golden State at Denver Nuggets
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Monday 9 April 2012 - Tip Off 9pm ET
2am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Denver Nuggets (30-26) voiced their frustrations after a disappointing loss to the Golden State Warriors (22-33) on Saturday and they will look to bounce back from that setback here. Denver are only 1 game ahead of the Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference Play Offs and cannot afford to lose these games they are expected to win.
Ty Lawson made that clear after the loss to the Golden State Warriors on Saturday, bemoaning the fact that they followed a win at Chicago with a loss to Toronto and a win over Orlando with a defeat to the New Orleans Hornets. He has made it clear to his team that they cannot afford to give up these 'easy' games with the race for the Play Offs as tight as it is.
Danilo Gallinari could return for the Nuggets tonight and that could be a big boost to the team as he has averaged 15.2 points per game this season. Wilson Chandler looks set to miss another game with an injury as the Nuggets look to avoid a season sweep to the struggling Warriors.
7 players from the Golden State team scored double-digits in points in the win over Denver on Saturday and they will be looking for another effort like that despite being out of the Play Off picture themselves. The Warriors have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road, but they have at least been competitive in most of those games.
The Warriors are still missing their top scorer this season, Stephen Curry, while the trade with Milwaukee saw them lose Monta Ellis for the injured Andrew Bogut. David Lee has filled in the gap for the Warriors as he has averaged 25.1 points per game in the last 8 games he has played.
Head to Head
Golden State have won both games against Denver this season, both as the underdog, as they look for a season sweep of the series.
The Nuggets were 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series before this season, and they are 4-2 in the last 6 games at home against the Warriors.
Denver are 11-17 against the spread at home this season, Golden State are 18-9 on the road.
Denver are 15-19 against the spread as the favourite, Golden State are 25-16 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Denver are 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games against a team that has won less than 40% of their games on the road.
Golden State are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as the road underdog.
They have won their last 5 games against the spread against teams with winning records.
Prediction
I am going to take the underdog Golden State Warriors to stay within the points offered for the following reasons:
First, Golden State have played well against Denver in their games this season and won't be intimidated in playing them again.
Second, Golden State have a solid 7-2 record against the spread as the road underdog between 6 and 9.5 points.
Third, Denver are just 1-5 against the spread in games against teams with losing records in the second half of the season. Golden State are 5-1 in the same time period against teams with winning records.
Fourth, Denver have just been poor under the expectation of a favourite this season, going 6-16 against the spread in the last 22 games in that position. They are just 6-15 against the spread in their last 21 games as the home favourite.
The Pick :
Denver Nuggets 112-106 Golden State
