NBA Basketball
2012-04-09 - LA Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Monday 9 April 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Western Conference is undoubtedly the more loaded of the two Conferences in the NBA and this is a game between two teams in the thick of the mix for a postseason berth. The Memphis Grizzlies (32-23) still have some hopes of finishing in one of the top 4 seeds, and this will give them a real opportunity to do so if they can knock off the LA Clippers (34-22).
The Clippers will also have one eye above them in the Pacific Division as they can actually tie the LA Lakers record with a win, although their City rivals are playing in New Orleans tonight too. Still, with just 0.5 games between the Lakers and the Clippers, the latter will certainly feel they can still win the Pacific Division.
LA have been in fantastic form coming into this game, winning 8 of their last 9 including a 6 game winning streak which is their longest such streak in 20 years. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are understandably given most of the attention in the Clippers line up, but it is Randy Foye who is really making a difference in recent games.
Foye has averaged 20.2 points and is shooting just under 50% from beyond the arc in the last 6 games for the Clippers to give them a third shooting option that they have missed in the absence of Chauncey Billups. Mo Williams may also be back for this game to give the Clippers further options from off the bench.
It won't be easy tonight against a Memphis team that has won 7 of their last 9 contests, including at Miami, Oklahoma City and here against Dallas. The Grizzlies have won their last 4 at home as they continue moving up the Western Conference standings.
Memphis are holding teams to 91.4 points per game during their last 9 games and that is helping to hide the fact that they have not been that effective from the field on the offensive side of the court. However, they have got a boost from recently signed Gilbert Arenas who has averaged 11 points per game over the last 4 games and is hitting 66% of his three point efforts.
Head to Head
The Clippers have won both meetings with Memphis this season, both straight up and against the spread, although both of those have taken place at the Staples Center.
That also means the Clippers have won 4 in a row against Memphis, going 3-1 against the spread in those games.
Memphis are 5-2 in their last 7 home games against LA, going 4-3 against the spread in those games.
Memphis are 13-13 against the spread at home this season, LA are 13-12-1 on the road.
Memphis are 14-16 against the spread as the favourite, LA are 9-8 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Memphis are 20-6 against the spread in their last 26 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
LA are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog being given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I am going to back the underdog LA Clippers to keep this close for the following reasons:
First, the Clippers have played well against the Grizzlies this season and have the offense to score points against them despite Memphis' recent solid defensive performances.
Second, Memphis seem to have struggled under the expectation of being a favourite recently, going 2-7 against the spread in that spot. They are just 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 as the home favourite.
Third, the two teams have had contrasting results against the other's Division. Memphis are just 5-9 against the spread when meeting teams from the Pacific, the Clippers are 8-4 against teams from the Southwest.
The Pick :
Memphis Grizzlies 93-95 LA Clippers
