Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics | 2012-04-08 | NBA Basketball | Betting Pick by FirstDown

NBA Basketball

2012-04-08 - Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
United States: NBA Basketball
Sunday 8 April 2012 - Tip Off 6pm ET
11pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

This is an absolutely huge game for both teams as the battle for the Atlantic Division, and a top 4 berth in the Eastern Conference Play Offs, hots up with three teams involved. The Boston Celtics (31-24) have taken the lead, but they are just 2 games ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers (29-26) and just 3 games ahead of the New York Knicks who play Chicago at home earlier in the day.

The Boston Celtics were all but written off earlier this season as they struggled to cope with the shortened schedule and the veterans were not clicking with consistency. However, they have really begun to turn on the after burners in the last few weeks, going 16-7 in the second half of the season including a big win in Indiana last night.

Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers made a fantastic start to the season, but have hit the buffers in recent weeks as they have gone 4-8 and they are now also being tracked by the Milwaukee Bucks, a team out of the Play Offs, who trail them by just 1.5 games.

The 76ers were beaten by the slumping Orlando Magic last night at home and were greeted with boos from the crowd during the last 2 minutes of that game, the first time they have shown their frustrations in the Doug Collins era.

Ray Allen has struggled in his return from injury for the Celtics, but he looked a lot stronger last night. Boston have also found an adequate piece to complement their starting players in the form of Avery Bradley, a player that has brought youthful energy to the team. Boston are now also looking like a serious contender again in the top heavy Eastern Conference.

Head to Head

While Philadelphia have been struggling in recent weeks, they can still point to two victories over the Celtics, both straight up and against the spread. That has given them the head to head tie-breaker in the Division if they finish with the same record.

However, both of those games took place in Philadelphia, and Boston have dominated at home where they are 5-1 against the 76ers. Those games have been split 3-3 against the spread.

Boston are 15-12-1 against the spread at home this season, Philadelphia are 11-13 on the road.

Boston are 15-17 against the spread as the favourite, Philadelphia are 5-10 as the underdog.

Other Interesting Trends

Boston have won their last 4 games against the spread when set as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.

They have won their last 6 games against the spread when playing a team with a losing record on the road.

Philadelphia are 7-20 against the spread in their last 27 games against a team with a winning record.

They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.

Prediction

I am going to back the Boston Celtics to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, Boston have been in better form of the two teams and will be absolutely motivated to win this game having lost the head to head tie-breaker in the Division already.

Second, the 76ers have really struggled against the better teams in the NBA, going 2-4 against the spread when facing teams with winning records in the second half of the season.

Third, Boston are not great when playing the second of back to back nights play, going 2-3 against the spread in this spot recently, but the 76ers have struggled a lot more, losing their last 6 against the spread in this position.

Fourth, Boston have a very good home record against the 76ers and I think the spread looks a little short to me. I was expecting Boston to be closer to 5-7 point favourites in this one, so giving up 4 points looks good to me.