MLB Baseball
2012-04-08 - New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
United States: Major League Baseball
Sunday 8 April 2012 - First Pitch 1:40pm ET
6:40pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The evil Empire will be looking to avoid their third defeat in a row to open the new season as they complete the opening series at the Tampa Bay Rays (2-0). The New York Yankees (0-2) have not opened a season 0-3 since 1998, although finishing that year with the World Series pennant and a 114-48 record in the regular season.
With the American League East looking deeper than it has for years, the Yankees will be hoping they can at least get a game on the board after being beaten by a combined 3 runs in the opening two games.
Tampa Bay have received a lot of plaudits for their early season form as they tied the St Louis Cardinals for the most runs in the Major Leagues with 15, although the Yankees themselves have put up 12, coming just short with a 9th inning rally in the game yesterday.
Derek Jeter was set as the Designated Hitter yesterday as Joe Girardi has made it clear he will give his veteran players a rest from the fielding aspect of the game. Alex Rodriguez could be the DH in this game, or perhaps sit out altogether.
Phil Hughes will be sent to the mound for New York as he looks to bounce back from a 5-5 record in 2011 and a 5.79 ERA. He struggled with injury last season, but Hughes has shown real signs of recovery during Spring Training.
Hughes is 3-3 against the Rays in his career with a 4.21 ERA from 6 starts against them.
Tampa Bay will counter with Jeremy Hellickson who finished 2011 with a 13-10 record and a 2.95 ERA in his rookie season in the big Leagues. However, he will need to improve on a Spring Training showing that saw that ERA balloon to 9.00 from 20 innings pitched.
Hellickson is 1-1 in 4 career starts against the Yankees with a 4.07 ERA.
Head to Head
Tampa Bay's 2 wins this season means they have now beaten the Yankees on 6 consecutive occasions and they are also 7-1 in their last 8 at home against their Divisional rivals.
They finished the season series all square in 2011, 9-9, with Tampa Bay winning their home series 6-3.
Tampa Bay are 2-0 at home against New York with Jeremy Hellickson starting on the mound.
New York are 1-2 on the road against Tampa Bay with Phil Hughes on the mound.
Other Interesting Trends
Tampa Bay are 22-8 in their last 30 games as the home favourite.
They are 9-2 in their last 11 home games against a right handed pitcher.
New York are 41-14 in their last 55 games when losing the first two games of a series.
However, they have lost their last 5 games as the road underdog.
Prediction
I am going to back the underdog New York Yankees to leave Florida with at least one game on the board for the following reasons:
First, I know Jeremy Hellickson had a very good rookie season, but he has struggled in Spring Training and I think his ERA will be a lot closer to Phil Hughes' at the end of this season (barring injury setbacks).
Second, while the Tampa Bay bats are hot as they are the joint early leaders in the Major League with 15 runs scored, the Yankees are not doing too badly themselves and could get over the edge in this one.
Third, if the Yankees can get a good start out of Phil Hughes, I think the bullpen can do enough to hold off the Rays and grab the first W of the season.
The Pick :
Tampa Bay Rays 6-7 New York Yankees
