NBA Basketball
2012-04-06 - Houston Rockets at LA Lakers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Friday 6 April 2012 - Tip Off 10:30pm ET
3:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The LA Lakers (35-20) secured a big win against the LA Clippers last time out and that has put them in command of the Number 3 seed in the Western Conference, but they cannot rest on their laurels just yet as the regular season winds down to a close.
They face the Houston Rockets (29-25) at the Staples Center, a team that will be fighting for their Play Off berth down the stretch. The Rockets are currently the Number 7 seed, but they hold just a 1 game lead over the likes of Phoenix and Utah who are on the outside looking in.
Andrew Bynum and Kobe Bryant dominated the Clippers, with both exceeding 30 points in that game, and I think we could see another big game from the latter. That is because the media have been talking about the defensive job Chandler Parsons did on the Black Mamba when the teams met in Houston recently. Usually when the media praises a player for their performance against Bryant, you can expect the All-Star to respond in the only way he knows on the court.
The trade for Ramon Sessions has also given the Lakers a new angle to attack opponents on the offensive side of the ball and they look like coming together in a very solid way as the Play Offs approach.
Houston have missed Kevin Martin and Kyle Lowry and they have exchanged wins and losses over their last 6 games, leaving them in a precarious position in the Play Off race. However, their future is still within their own hands as they entertain both Utah and Phoenix, two rivals for their Play Offs, next week.
Lowry has been participating in drills recently, but his status for this game remains doubtful. Goran Dragic has been playing in Lowry's PG position and has been performing admirably. He has averaged 22.7 points and 6 assists in the last 3 contests he has played.
Head to Head
Houston beat the Lakers by 3 points at home in their last meeting to level the season series 1-1, both straight up and against the spread.
LA have won their last 4 home meetings with Houston, although those have been split 2-2 against the spread.
The home team is 9-4 against the spread in the last 13 games in the series.
LA are 13-15 against the spread at home this season, Houston are 10-15-1 on the road.
LA are 13-25 against the spread as the favourite, Houston are 13-14 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
The Lakers have lost their last 7 games against the spread as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
Houston are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road underdog.
Prediction
I am going to back the LA Lakers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Lakers are 5-2 against the spread in games where they are favoured at home by between 6.5 and 9 points.
Second, the Lakers generally have a strong home record against the Rockets and are 8-4 against the spread in recent games here.
Third, I think the spread has been set a little low with my projections guessing the Lakers would have been 9 point favourites, especially considering the Rockets gave Dallas 7 points last week.
Fourth, I think Kobe Bryant is going to be fired up after suggestions he had been 'well defended' when meeting the Rockets last time out and that does not bode well for Houston.
The Pick :
LA Lakers 106-97 Houston Rockets
