Barcelona vs AC Milan Betting Pick | Champions League

Champions League

2012-04-03 - Barcelona vs AC Milan

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Barcelona v AC Milan
Football: European Champions League, Quarter Final Second Leg
Tuesday 3 April 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
The game is tied 0-0 from the First Leg

Barcelona

Barcelona may have been a little disappointed not to have secured an away goal from the first leg in Milan last week, especially when they should have been awarded a stonewall penalty in the first half, but I think they fancy their chances against any team at the Nou Camp. However, they will still need to be a little wary as an away goal for Milan will mean Barcelona have to win this game.

The reigning La Liga holders still have a slight grip on their trophy in Spain, although still trailing Real Madrid by 6 points with 8 games left to play. They have been very strong in Europe this season, winning 7 of their 9 Champions League games although both draws came against Milan. Barcelona are 3-1-0 here at the Nou Camp, scoring at least 2 goals in each game.

They have won 10 of their last 11 games in all competition, the only exception being the first leg last week, and they were comfortable 2-0 winners over Athletic Bilbao at the weekend. That result means Barcelona have won their last 7 games at the Nou Camp, the last 6 coming by at least 2 goals. They have won 12 of their last 14 home games in the Champions League.

Xavi is a doubt for this game and will need to pass a late fitness test, but Cesc Fabregas should be back in the squad after being rested at the weekend. Adriano returned to the side and will provide a better balance from the left back position.

AC Milan

AC Milan will know they will progress through to the Semi Final of this competition if they can earn the same result they did here in the Group Stages this season when drawing 2-2. The team will have to work hard, as they did last week at the San Siro, if they are to achieve their goals and this is going to be a big test of their credentials.

The team could not afford to rest players at the weekend in anticipation of this game as they have a slender lead over Juventus in Serie A. That was cut down to 2 points as Milan could only earn a 1-1 draw at Catania on Saturday. The Rossoneri have a 3-4-2 record in the Champions League this season, which becomes 0-3-1 away from home.

Milan are unbeaten in their last 6 games in all competitions since a 3-0 loss at Arsenal in the second leg of the last 16, although they have won just 1 of their last 4 games. They have won just 1 of their last 4 away games, although have earned score draws in their last 2 games on their travels, a result that would see them through tonight.

Pato has travelled with the squad to Spain which suggests he could return for the side. However, they are missing Mark van Bommel, Thiago Silva and Alexander Merkel for this game.

Head to Head

This will be the fourth meeting between these giants of European football this season with 2 of the first 3 ending in draws and Barcelona earning a win.

Barcelona have failed to win any of their last 2 home games against Milan and they have won just 1 in their last 5 here against the Italian club.

Barcelona have a 10-4-2 home record against Italian clubs in Europe, while Milan are 4-5-11 in trips to Spain.

Prediction

This is bound to be a tense evening at the Nou Camp for as long as the game remains 0-0, but I think Josep Guardiola has made it clear that he is sending his team out to attack from the first minute of the game to 'outscore' Milan.

I expect Barcelona will have the majority of possession as they did at the San Siro last week, but I do think the return of Adriano is key to their chances as they can stretch the field a little more with balance on both sides. Last week Carlos Puyol played at left back and he doesn't bomb forward like Dani Alves so a lot of the Barca attacks were coming from one direction, making it that much easier to defend.

I think Barcelona also miss the presence of David Villa in a game like this as they don't quite have the same penetration without him, especially when faced with a team that is sitting back and defending.

However, I think they will create more chances today in front of their home fans and could exploit more spaces if they do go 1-0 up and force Milan to come out and send more men forward.

Milan are a good team, and I do think they can create some chances in this game, although they will need more composure in front of goal than they showed last week. They will look to counter Barcelona where they can, but their game plan could go out of the window if they do fall behind.

I think it is telling that Milan have lost just 4 away games in all season, but all 4 have come by at least 2 goals. Barcelona, on the other hand, have won their last 6 home games by at least 2 goals and 10 of their last 12 home wins in the Champions League have come by at least that margin.

With Josep Guardiola urging his team to keep attacking to put Milan in the rear view mirror, I don't think they will let up in this game so backing them on the Asian Handicap looks the way forward. A 2 goal win would at least pay out as half a winner, while a 3 goal win gives us a full winner.