Eng. Championship
2012-03-31 - Portsmouth vs Burnley
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Championship
Saturday 31 March 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Portsmouth
Something has to be said about the desire and the belief the Portsmouth players have after administration plunged them into deep relegation trouble. The club has never recovered from the over spending they did in the Premier League, but the players and management seem determined to make sure they don't slip another Division.
A ten point deduction left Portsmouth at the bottom of the Championship and seemingly destined for relegation, but they have shown some tremendous fight. That has seen them move up to 23rd in the table and they are now only 3 points from Bristol City in the safety zone. Portsmouth have a 9-5-5 record at Fratton Park this season, scoring 26 goals and conceding 15.
Pompey had recently been on a run of 9 games in the Championship without a victory, but they have turned a corner with 2 wins from their last 3 games. They had failed to win in 5 games at Fratton Park, only scoring 1 goal in those games and suffering 3 losses, but now they have won back to back League games here, scoring 6 goals and conceding 1. The fact they have beaten Birmingham City and Hull City, two teams fighting for the Play Off berths, will only inspire confidence.
It seems that Michael Appleton is going to stick with a winning formula and make no changes to the team that beat Hull 2-0 during the week.
Burnley
Eddie Howe is one of the brightest young managers in the country, but he continues to have a tough time in getting his methods understood at Burnley. The Play Offs look out of reach already for the club, while they have no concerns about relegation with 7 games left to play this season.
Burnley are 16th in the Championship and a poor run of form has seen them drop to 10 points behind the Play Off positions and with a host of clubs between them and 6th placed Birmingham City. They have a decent 8-1-10 away record this season, scoring 21 goals and conceding 25, which suggests they can cause plenty of problems in this game.
However, they will have to improve on a run of form that has seen them pick up 3 points in just 1 of their last 10 League games, while failing to do so in the last 7 in a row. Burnley have been particularly poor on their travels, losing 4 of their last 5 away League games and failing to score in 4 of those games. However, Burnley can at least point to the fact that these run of games have come against the better teams in the Championship for the most part.
With goals being a problem in recent away games, Burnley look set to miss their top scorer, Jay Rodriguez, for this game. There are no other injury worries for Eddie Howe.
Head to Head
Portsmouth will be looking to complete the double over Burnley having recorded a 0-1 win at Turf Moor earlier this season courtesy of a 90th minute winner from David Norris.
Portsmouth had won 4 of their previous 5 home games against Burnley before being beating 1-2 here last season.
Prediction
This is not going to be an easy game for either side, but I think the momentum that Portsmouth have picked up from their last two home games may be enough for them to hit the 2.40 odds being quoted for the game.
Portsmouth have really rallied together since the ten point deduction for falling into administration and they find themselves with a real chance of surviving in the Championship if they can ride that momentum until the end of the season.
Burnley have been struggling for results recently, particularly away from home, and the absence of Jay Rodriguez will only make it more difficult for them to rectify the 2 goals in 5 away games they have had.
They also have less to play for than Portsmouth and there can be the tendency for players to perhaps not be so focused as their opponents who have everything to gain from picking up three points in this game.
The wins over Play Off chasing Birmingham and Hull should surely inspire the Portsmouth players and give them the belief that they can stay up and I am going to try and ride that belief on Saturday.
The Pick :
Portsmouth 2-0 Burnley
