Eng. Championship
2012-03-31 - Brighton vs Middlesbrough
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Championship
Saturday 31 March 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Brighton
While Southampton may be getting the headlines as they look for back to back promotions from League One to the Premier League, Brighton are also in the mix to do a 'Norwich City' as they look to cement their place in the Play Off picture. This is a big game for them as they play one of their potential rivals for one of the four spots available.
Brighton are 4th in the Championship, but will be aware that they need to look behind them rather than up ahead. That is because they are 11 points behind Reading for an automatic promotion berth and just 4 points clear of 11th place Leicester City as clubs queue up behind them for a Play Off position. They will rely on their form at the Amex Stadium to help them through as they are 11-5-3 there this season, scoring 32 goals and conceding just 16.
The team have lost just 1 of their 15 League games played since the change in the calender year, although they were also beaten at Liverpool in the FA Cup. They remain a very difficult prospect at home as they are unbeaten in their last 8 League games there, winning 6 of those including 3 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem for them as they have at least 2 in 7 of their last 8 at home.
Craig Mackail-Smith is back for Brighton this week after recovering from a virus. Will Buckley and Adam El-Abd are also back in the squad, but Matt Sparrow is out with a suspension.
Middlesbrough
Tony Mowbray has exceeded expectations at the Riverside Stadium this season, but he will now be expecting his Middlesbrough side to give themselves a chance of promotion by securing a Play Off berth. Much like their opponents today, Boro have some work to do if they don't want to miss the lottery of the Play Offs with just 7 games left to play.
Middlesbrough are 5th in the Championship and have the same number of points as Brighton and the same worries as a host of teams queue up behind them with the ambition of securing a top 6 finish for themselves. The team have been very effective on their travels this season, compiling a 9-5-5 record and scoring 26 goals while conceding 25. Only West Ham and Reading have won more away games than Middlesbrough this season.
They have hit the buffers a little in recent weeks with no wins from their last 5 League games, although they have drawn the last 3 of those games. They have lost just 1 of their last 6 away games in the Championship and have earned results at West Ham and Ipswich Town since a 3-0 loss at Birmingham City. Middlesbrough have scored just 2 goals in their last 3 away games.
Matthew Bates has been ruled out with a knee injury suffered during the week at Ipswich. Marvin Emnes needs to pass a late fitness test, while Stephen McManus has been recalled from his loan at Bristol City and could come in for Bates.
Head to Head
Middlesbrough beat Brighton 1-0 at home earlier this season, but this will be their first trip down to the South Coast since 1993.
Brighton have failed to win any of their last 3 games at home against Middlesbrough, losing 2 of those, but the last of those was 19 years ago.
Prediction
I did consider this game to go 'Overs', but instead I am going to back the home side to win the game.
Brighton had a week off to prepare for this game while Middlesbrough had a tough game at Portman Road during the week and the home side can expose any tiredness that may creep into the away side's performance.
You cannot underestimate Middlesbrough solely down to their away record this season and recently when they earned draws at West Ham and Ipswich, but Brighton have been playing very well at home.
I just feel the home side have more goals in the side and that could be the difference between getting 1 point or grabbing the full complement on offer. They have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 home games and I feel if they can reach that tally again, they will be able to win the game.
The odds against quotes for the home side are tempting enough to chance them continuing their good run at the Amex Stadium and earning a big three points against a Play Off rival.
The Pick :
Brighton 2-1 Middlesbrough
