English Premier
2012-03-31 - Aston Villa vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 31 March 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Aston Villa
Alex McLeish will be hoping his Aston Villa side can get some level of consistency in the final 8 games of the Premier League season and also avoid being dragged into any sort of relegation scrap that is developing behind them.
Aston Villa are 15th in the Premier League table at kick off, finding themselves 8 points ahead of QPR in the final relegation spot. They are still 7 points short of reaching the magical 40 point mark and that has to be a little concerning for those fans at Villa Park on Saturday. They are 4-4-6 at home this season, scoring 15 goals and conceding 17.
The team have won just 1 of their last 8 games in all competitions, that coming courtesy of a last minute winner. That win came in their last home game against Fulham and could be all important come May. Villa have struggled for goals recently, scoring just 2 in their last 5 Premier League games. They have earned just 2 points from their previous 21 at Villa Park before beating Fulham last time out.
The loss of Robbie Keane and the injury to Darren Bent have reduced options up front. Charles N'Zogbia and Alan Hutton are latest injury concerns, while Richard Dunne may return from his own injury suffered a few weeks ago.
Chelsea
The win at Benfica on Tuesday night was one of the more impressive performances I have seen coming from this Chelsea side this season and they will want to build on that with the ambition of pressuring Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League spots for next season. Roberto Di Matteo is juggling his players with three competitions still in hand to reduce tiredness.
A 0-0 home draw against Spurs last week means Chelsea are still in 5th place in the Premier League table and trail their London rivals by 5 points in the chase for the Champions League spots. With 8 games to go this season, it is imperative that the Blues improve their 5-5-5 away record this season, in which they have scored 18 goals and conceded 15.
The win at Benfica means Chelsea have improved to 5-1-1 under Roberto Di Matteo since Andre Villa-Boas was fired. It was an impressive win in Europe, but they would love to bring some of that into the Premier League where the team have lost 3 in a row on their travels and have won just 1 of their last 8 away games. A worry will be the lack of goals as they have only scored more than 1 goal in 1 of those games and only kept 1 clean sheet.
Branislav Ivanovic is the only player who is doubtful for this game, while I imagine there will be a bit of squad rotation to give the fresh legs a chance in this game.
Head to Head
Aston Villa stunned Chelsea 1-3 at Stamford Bridge on the final day of 2011 and they bring a good home record against their opponents into this game.
Villa have only lost 1 of their last 12 games at home against Chelsea in all competitions, although that loss did come three seasons ago.
Goals have usually been plentiful in games at Stamford Bridge between the sides, but less so at Villa Park. Only 1 of the last 7 games at Villa Park has seen 3 or more goals scored.
Prediction
I am sure Chelsea are going to have plenty of supporters for the game at Villa Park, but I am not going to be one of those at odds on considering their record on their travels in recent Premier League games.
Aston Villa have not been in great form themselves, so I am not overly optimistic of their chances of avoiding defeat either and thus I will leave the win-draw-win market alone.
Instead, I think the layers may be taking a chance by pricing the 'Unders' at a far more attractive price than the away win. As I mentioned in the 'head to head' section, 6 of the last 7 games at Villa Park have seen 2 or fewer goals scored and plenty points to this being another one.
Villa have struggled for goals in recent weeks without Darren Bent and Robbie Keane and the absence of Charles N'Zogbia limits their options a little more. The side failed to breach Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City in games at home and I think they will be set out to make life difficult for Chelsea.
Chelsea themselves have struggled for goals away from home and have only twice scored more than 1 goal in their last 12 away games in all competitions.
It just all points to being another tight game at Villa Park and the Unders looks more appealing than picking a winner here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Aston Villa 1-1 Chelsea
