NBA Basketball
2012-03-28 - Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Wednesday 28 March 2012 - Tip Off 7:30pm ET
12:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
These two teams have similar records from the season so far, but the Boston Celtics (27-22) are still in contention for the Division title while the Utah Jazz (27-23) are fighting to get into the Play Offs at all in the Western Conference. Both teams will be desperate to grab the win when they meet at the TD Garden on Wednesday.
Doc Rivers has made it clear a few times over the last month that he wants his team to realise that now is the time to start getting some consistency from their performances and they have semi-responded with 4 wins in their last 5 games. That hasn't mattered so much to Rivers as he was disappointed that the Celtics allowed Charlotte to get so close to them despite opening a 18 point lead in the first quarter.
Ray Allen is expected back in the line up today after missing 3 games and that will not impress the Jazz as Allen averages 23.9 points per game in his career against them.
Utah opened up a three game road trip with a quadruple overtime loss to the Atlanta Hawks, but bounced back with a win at New Jersey the following night and have now won 6 of their last 7 games as they have surged into the Western Conference Play Off picture. They only hold a 0.5 game lead over Houston who are looking in so they want to keep this momentum going as long as possible.
The Jazz have been scoring heavily, averaging 109 points per game in their last 8 games, and their recovery to beat New Jersey a night after the loss in Atlanta impressed Al Jefferson, who believes this shows how high the confidence is in the rotation.
Head to Head
Boston have won 3 of the last 4 games in the series between the teams, while they have won their last 3 at home against the Jazz by an average of 17.3 points per game.
Boston are 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 games overall, and they have won the last 2 at home against Utah.
Boston are 13-12 against the spread at home this season, Utah are 10-15 on the road.
Boston are 13-17 against the spread as the favourite, Utah are 14-15-1 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Boston are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
However, they are just 7-15 against the spread in their last 22 games against teams from the Western Conference.
Utah are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Prediction
I am going to back this game to go Over in the total match point market for the following reasons:
First, the Overs is 16-5-1 in the last 22 games in the series between the teams, while one of the teams has reached at least 100 points in 9 of the last 10 games in the series.
Second, the Overs is 6-2 in the last 8 games Utah have played as the road underdog, while it is 8-1-1 in the last 10 games Boston have played as the home favourite.
Third, the Overs is 11-4 in Utah's non-Conference games, and 8-6 in Boston's non-Conference games.
The Pick :
Boston Celtics 103-95 Utah Jazz
