AC Milan vs Barcelona Betting Pick | Champions League

Champions League

2012-03-28 - AC Milan vs Barcelona

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

AC Milan v Barcelona
Football: European Champions League, Quarter Final First Leg
Wednesday 28 March 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV

AC Milan

AC Milan are confident in their ability to cause a surprise in the Quarter Final of the Champions League, a stage they have reached for the first time since winning this event in 2007. They have admitted they have been inspired by Inter Milan who beat Barcelona in the 2010 Semi Finals, although they want to go about getting the win in a different manner than their City rivals.

They have opened up a 4 point lead in Serie A with 9 games left to play as they look to retain the title they won last season. Milan have a 9-4-1 record at the San Siro this season in the League, while they are 3-3-2 in the Champions League. They have won 3 of their 4 home games in the Champions League this season, but the one exception was a 2-3 loss to Barcelona in the Group Stage.

Milan have suffered just the 1 loss in their last 10 games in all competitions, although that did come in this competition when losing 3-0 at Arsenal in the Second Leg of the last 16. They have won 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions, and they have also won 3 of their last 4 games at the San Siro.

Thiago Silva has been ruled out for this game and will be replaced by the experienced Alessandro Nesta. Urby Emanuelson is doubtful, while Pato, Ignazio Abate and Alexander Merkel are all out. Mark Van Bommel is suspended by Robinho is available.

Barcelona

Barcelona remain the favourites to win the Champions League and become the first team to retain the top prize in European football since AC Milan did it in 1989 and 1990. The Catalan giants have avoided Real Madrid until the Final and it seems like their Spanish rivals will be their biggest obstacles again this season. That doesn't mean they should overlook a Milan side that gave them plenty of trouble in the Group Stage.

The team remain 6 points behind Real Madrid in La Liga, but will feel they can still overcome that deficit with a game against their rivals at home and 8 others to go. Barcelona are 8-5-2 away from home domestically, while they are 7-1-0 in the Champions League. They have won all 4 away games they have played in the competition this season, and they have scored at least 3 goals in each of those games.

A surprise 3-2 loss at Osasuna has been followed by 9 consecutive wins in all competitions and that makes Barcelona the clear favourites for this tie. They have won their last 5 away games in all competitions and they have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 6 away from the Nou Camp.

Adriano looks like he will miss out, but Thiago has returned to the squad and travelled to Italy.

Head to Head

This will be the third time this season that Barcelona and AC Milan have met in the Champions League, with both previous games seeing at least 4 goals shared by the teams.

Barcelona beat Milan 2-3 here earlier this season, meaning they have won on their last 2 visits to the San Siro when facing this team from Milan.

Prediction

I think AC Milan have got it right in their head that they need to win this game if they are to have a serious chance of making it through to the Semi Final of the Champions League this season as any other result will mean doing something special at the San Siro in 6 days time.

Milan manager Massimiliano Allegri has made it clear he will want his side to play attacking football where possible, but try to eradicate the mistakes that cost them in an entertaining 2-3 loss in the Group Stage of the competition earlier this season.

The problem is they are facing a Barcelona side that have been scoring for fun in their away games recently, so Milan are not overly concerned about the clean sheets that most home teams are at the knock out stage of European games.

I think Barcelona are the right favourites to win the game, but they do look a little short in the win-draw-win market, especially considering how much better Milan have been at home in Europe this season.

I feel there will be goals in the game, and that leads me to thinking of taking the Overs here. Usually games in the Champions League Quarter Finals will be tight affairs, but Milan will be attacking to try and take a lead to Spain next week, while Barcelona clearly have plenty of goals in the side.

The Statistics :

MILAN_AC LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-02-15	W	4-0	H v Arsenal
	2011-11-23	L	2-3	H v Barcelona
	2011-10-19	W	2-0	H v BATE_Borisov
	2011-09-28	W	2-0	H v Plzen
	2011-02-15	L	0-1	H v Tottenham
	2010-12-08	L	0-2	H v Ajax

BARCELONA LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-02-14	W	1-3	A v Leverkusen
	2011-11-23	W	2-3	A v Milan_AC
	2011-11-01	W	0-4	A v Plzen
	2011-09-28	W	0-5	A v BATE_Borisov
	2011-04-27	W	0-2	A v Real_Madrid
	2011-04-12	W	0-1	A v Shaktar_Donetsk