Champions League
2012-03-27 - Apoel Nicosia vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League, Quarter Final First Leg
Tuesday 27 March 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Apoel
Seriously, I would love to know how many people, outside those associated with the Cypriot Champions, would have predicted that Apoel would be one of the last 8 clubs left in the Champions League this season while sides like Manchester United, Manchester City and Inter Milan are all sitting out. It has been a remarkable achievement for the club to get here, but they now face a daunting task in Real Madrid.
It is remarkable considering Apoel had to come through three Qualifying Rounds just to reach the Group Stage of the competition, while they showed their belief and courage to beat Lyon on a penalty shoot-out in the last Round. The team have only lost 3 of their 14 Champions League games this season, and they have a very good 5-1-1 record at home in the competition.
The team are 3rd in their domestic League, but that could have something to do with their achievements in Europe this season. However, they will now be involved in round-robin matches against the two teams above them and the one below to decide the title. Apoel have not lost any of their last 7 games in all competitions, winning 5 of them. They drew 0-0 here at the weekend, but they had won 5 in a row before that and they have 4 clean sheets in a row.
Gustavo Manduca is out of this game through suspension, while Panos Constantinou, the goalkeeper hero from the last Round, is out with a knee injury.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid are once again amongst the elite in Europe, a place where they think they belong, and they will feel confident that they can reach the Semi Finals of the Champions League for the second season in succession. La Liga is still in their hands, but reaching the Final in Munich is one of the big expectations that comes with playing for the 9 time European Champions.
The team were comfortable winners in the last Round of the Champions League as they recorded a 5-2 aggregate win over CSKA Moscow and, apart from a 92nd minute equaliser for CSKA in the first leg of that tie, they have won all their games in the competition. Real have won 5 of their last 8 away games in this competition, while the other 3 games have ended 1-1.
With a 6 point lead in La Liga, Real Madrid will feel they are going to break the Barcelona dominance domestically and they will want to sever their rivals grip on this tournament too. They recently hit the buffers a little with back to back draws in the League, but a 5-1 home win over Real Sociedad will inspire confidence. Real Madrid are 3-3-0 in their last 6 away games in all competitions.
There are a few injuries for Jose Mourinho to contend with in this game, as Lassana Diarra joins Ricardo Carvalho, Angel Di Maria and Jose Callejon on the sidelines. Xabi Alonso also misses out with a suspension.
Head to Head
This is the first time that Apoel and Real Madrid will be meeting in a competitive game.
Apoel have only lost 1 of their 5 previous home games against Spanish opposition while drawing the other 4 games. Real Madrid have won both games they have played in Cyprus, but both game in the late 1960s.
Prediction
Real Madrid are very short odds to make the second leg a formality by winning here in Cyprus and that expectation has also seen the prices of individual goalscorers drop to unbackable levels as far as I am concerned.
I don't want to underestimate Apoel and all they have achieved this season, but this is going to be a huge challenge for their side that works hard for one another. I just think they will look to counter Real Madrid when they can and hope for the best in this game, but I do believe Real's class will eventually tell.
The one price that may be worth taking is the 2.10 that Real Madrid win this game with a clean sheet. I think it looks a bit of value considering their last 6 wins away from home in the Champions League have all come with a clean sheet, while they have failed to win any of their last 5 away games in the Champions League when conceding.
I think Jose Mourinho will set his side up to be solid and try and take any advantage back to Spain next week. They won't push too much if they get the lead and I think they will look to counter Apoel if they get into that position.
It only took a 92nd minute goal from CSKA Moscow to break Real's 3 clean sheets away from home in the competition this season and I am going to back them to get back to basics in this one.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Apoel Nicosia 0-2 Real Madrid
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Real Madrid win to nil @ 2.10 (Ladbrokes)
