Champions League
2012-03-28 - AC Milan vs Barcelona
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : Europe : Champions League
Wednesday, March 28th, 2012, 7:45PM GMT
PREVIEW
So agonisingly close to yet another Arsenal v Barcelona but I suppose we have to settle for this without complaints as Arsenal stunk to high heaven in their first leg in Milan, getting hammered 4-0.
Despite a 3-0 lead in the return the Gunners could not get it done and now AC Milan will be tasked with stopping Barcelona, who will be hell bent on lifting the trophy, especially since they are about to miss out on the La Liga title to hated rivals Real Madrid, who have one leg in the semis already.
I know what you're thinking. If Arsenal can roar back and do Milan 3-0, then what will Barcelona do to them, especially considering their eye-watering display in the last round when they routed Bayer Leverkusen 7-1, with Messi grabbing 5 goals.
Barcelona, on paper, should tear through Milan with relative ease, and over 2 legs I would not recommend going against them. This is the 1st leg though, and Barcelona know they can register the killer blow back home, so will be happy to avoid defeat and leave with a couple of away goals.
Barcelona have never lost a QF tie in this tournament, and enter this one on the back of some serious away form. The Catalan side have now won their last 6 away games in the tournament and have also won on their last 2 trips here. Oh, and they're the defending champions of the tournament, having lifted the trophy twice in the last 3 years.
Of course, this match has already happened this year, back in the group phase, when Barcelona took it 3-2 at the San Siro. Milan did perform well though, and led in the game in Barcelona, before trailing 2-1 and then finally ending up with a draw.
Anyone expecting Milan to get rolled over because there are dazzled by that Messi masterclass is falling into the classic trap of only thinking back one game. Remember, Milan turned Arsenal over 4-0 here, and they did that by being solid in defence and taking their chances very, very well. Barcelona play a lot like Arsenal, and Milan already have experience against them this term.
Milan have an excellent home record in European competition, and have never lost a QF home game. They have 10 wins and 4 draws, but no losses. Remember, while Barcelona have won the trophy a couple of times, they did get beaten on the road in the knockout phase, before coming back and getting through on their home performance. Anyone remember the game at Arsenal last year?
BETTING VERDICT
Milan are nowhere near as good as Barcelona but they are a heavyweight with tons of experience. They are not 4 points clear at the top of Serie A by being rubbish, and in a one-off knockout style game they are unlikely to give much away.
Barcelona are the likely winners, but are priced too low and it is actually quite insulting to Milan, who boast an arrogant Ibrahimovic amongst their players, no doubt itching to score against his old side.
I will play the goalscorer markets, and while Messi may well score, I prefer to take Zlatan to have his say in the game. The prices are decent enough and worth taking as the game and tie odds are priced badly and not worth bothering with.
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