NBA Basketball
2012-03-23 - New Jersey Nets at Atlanta Hawks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Friday 23 March 2012 - Tip Off 7:30pm ET
11:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Atlanta Hawks (27-20) are one of the strangest enigmas in the Eastern Conference- they are a constant in the Play Off picture, but they just don't seem to have the total belief that they can win games against the best teams. They will feel better when playing one of the basement teams in the East as the New Jersey Nets (15-33) come to town.
The Hawks have been short-handed in recent games, but that has not stopped them winning 3 of their last 4 games, while they may also be given a boost with the return of some more players into the rotation. Ivan Johnson should return after missing the last game to be with his wife for a birth, while Marvin Williams and Willie Green also back to give some more support to the team.
New Jersey have also had injuries, but they have not fared as well as Atlanta, really struggling to get things going in the absence of Brook Lopez. They will be missing the big Center for the 11th game in a row, but they have fallen to 1-6 in their last 7 games, while Deron Williams is almost certain to leave the Nets in the off-season.
Williams was thrown out of the blow-out loss to Washington last time out, as well as Avery Johnson the Head Coach, as their frustrations are beginning to take their toll. The Nets have allowed at least 100 points in 5 of their last 7 games and that is something they will look to rectify.
Head to Head
Atlanta have won all 3 games against New Jersey this season, although they are just 1-2 against the spread in those games.
The Nets have now lost 6 straight games in Atlanta, being out-scored by 17.2 points per game in those losses, and they are just 1-5 against the spread in those games.
Atlanta are 10-11 against the spread at home this season, New Jersey are 13-12 on the road.
Atlanta are 14-12-1 against the spread as the favourite, New Jersey are 15-21-1 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Atlanta are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 19-7-1 against the spread in their last 27 games against teams that have won less than 40% of their games.
New Jersey are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the underdog of between 5 and 10.5 points.
However, they are just 6-15 against the spread in their last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.
The Nets are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games versus teams from the Eastern Conference.
Prediction
I like the Atlanta Hawks to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Atlanta have dominated the recent games in the series, especially at the Philips Arena where they are averaging wins by 17.2 points per game over the last 6 games in the series.
Second, the Hawks have also been good when meeting the weaker defensive teams in the NBA, going 5-2 against the spread against teams that allow more than 99 points per game.
Third, New Jersey struggle in this spot; they are 1-3 against the spread when they have lost their last game as the favourite, and they are 0-2 against the spread after playing 3 consecutive home games.
Fourth, New Jersey have gone just 2-5 against the spread when playing the first of back to back nights play, while Atlanta are 4-0 in this same spot.
The Pick :
Atlanta Hawks 104-92 New Jersey Nets
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Atlanta Hawks -7 Points @ 1.95
