NBA Basketball
2012-03-22 - Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Thursday 22 March 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Milwaukee Bucks (21-24) traded for Monta Ellis at the trade deadline with the ambition of pushing themselves into the Eastern Conference Play Offs and they are playing well enough to do so. However, a loss to the Boston Celtics (24-21) tonight may be a setback too many for this team in an important clash tonight.
Milwaukee are one of the hottest teams in the NBA having won 6 games in a row and 7 of their last 8 games as they look to close the gap on the New York Knicks, who they trail by 1.5 games, and the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Play Off race. They will be looking for their longest winning streak since 2002 if they can secure another W today.
They will hope Monta Ellis can continue his strong form since trading for him from the Golden State Warriors. Ellis has enjoyed plenty of success against the Celtics in his career, averaging 27.4 points per game over his last 5 contests against them, while scoring 41 points when he last met them last year.
Drew Gooden is another player that will look to continue his good form of late having been picked as the Eastern Conference player of the week last week. He has averaged 19.1 points per game over the last month and has helped the Bucks on this great run of form.
Boston will now be playing the 7th leg in their road trip with one more stop at Philadelphia to come and they have currently gone 3-3. A win at Atlanta last time out will at least have given the Celtics some confidence following back to back losses at Western Conference teams, while the 76ers loss last night to the New York Knicks means Boston can move to half a game behind the current Atlantic Division leaders.
Doc Rivers has admitted that he wants his Celtics to realise that they cannot afford to make mistakes at this stage of the season, although there is still some lacklustre play in their game. Rivers will be looking to his 'Big Three' to help them through with their experience- Paul Pierce has averaged 23.5 points in his last two visits to Milwaukee.
Head to Head
Boston have won 4 in a row in the series between the two teams, although 3 of those have taken place in Boston.
The Celtics have won back to back games at Milwaukee, although they are just 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 visits to this Arena.
Milwaukee are 20-8-1 against the spread in the last 29 games in the series.
Milwaukee are 10-10 against the spread at home this season, Boston are 8-13 on the road.
Both teams are 9-8 against the spread when considered the favourites and underdogs respectively.
Other Interesting Trends
Milwaukee have won their last 8 games against the spread.
However, they are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Boston are 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record at home.
They are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games against sub 0.500 teams.
However, Boston are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog being given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Prediction
I like Milwaukee to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Milwaukee are one of the hottest teams in the NBA, both winning games straight up and against the spread.
Second, the Bucks have performed well in the series against Boston and have gone 7-2-1 against the spread in the last 10 games in the series.
Third, Boston have been horrible against the Central Division, going 3-10 against the spread this season, and may be more focused on the big Atlantic Division clash at Philadelphia which is on deck.
Fourth, Milwaukee enjoy the confidence they get from winning games as the underdog, following that with a 6-2 record against the spread.
The Pick :
Milwaukee Bucks 101-96 Boston Celtics
