Europa League
2012-03-15 - Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Europa League, Last 16 Second Leg
Thursday 15 March 2012 - Kick Off 6pm
Athletic Bilbao lead 3-2 from the First Leg
This game is live on TV
Athletic Bilbao
A lot of people at Old Trafford were surprised with the talent that the Athletic Bilbao team had when they visited Manchester last week, but the home team will not be taking their place in the last 8 for granted as they still have a job to complete here. Three away goals has given them a great edge, although they will not take a backward step here.
As well as Bilbao did at Old Trafford, they will have been disappointed with a 2-1 defeat at Osasuna at the weekend which has dropped them down to 7th in La Liga, 3 points behind Malaga in the final Champions League place. They have a 6-5-2 record at home in the League while they are 3-2-0 at home in Europe this season.
The defeat at the weekend stopped a run of 5 games without defeat in all competitions of which Bilbao had won 4. The team have not lost in their last 12 home games in all competitions, while they have won 9 of their last 10 here. Bilbao have only conceded 3 goals in 2 of their 22 home games in all competitions this season, while they are unbeaten in their last 6 at home in Europe since a 0-3 loss to Werder Bremen.
There could be a bit of problem for Bilbao as Fernando Llorente has been suffering with an injury and he could miss out. Fernando Amorebieta is back from suspension.
Manchester United
Sir Alex Ferguson has taken a strong squad over to Spain for this game, ending all speculation that they will focus solely on the Premier League. The manager has been speaking of the spirit that Manchester United have in the squad and he is still confident that they can overturn this tie despite the 2-3 home loss.
United returned to the top of the Premier League for the first time since October courtesy of a 2-0 win over West Brom last Sunday that was coupled with the Swansea win over Manchester City. The Red Devils have a 10-3-1 away record in the Premier League, while they are 2-1-1 away from home in Europe.
The team have won 5 of their last 7 games in all competitions, although the 2 exceptions are the home defeats in the Europa League to Ajax and Athletic Bilbao. United have won their last 3 away games in all competitions and will feel they can do something a little special here as they have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 games on their travels.
The strong squad I mentioned earlier includes the likes of Rio Ferdinand, Paul Scholes, Antonio Valencia and Wayne Rooney. The only absentees are Nani, Anderson and Phil Jones who have all been suffering with knocks.
Head to Head
This will be the second time that Manchester United have visited Athletic Bilbao, but the first game since the 5-3 loss in the 1956/57 season.
Prediction
I think the layers are probably taking a big risk by pricing Athletic Bilbao as the underdog in this game considering how well they have played at home all season, but I guess the thinking is that they do not need to win to earn their place in the last 8.
Manchester United are in a position where they have to attack from the off and the first goal is going to be crucial to their chances of progressing through to the next Round. If United can score first, it will change the atmosphere of the tie, although I expect both sides are going to continue going forward with the ambition of scoring goals.
Athletic Bilbao are a very good side and they have made it clear that they are going to try and pick up from where they left off last week and use their pace and movement to pile forward in search of goals. However, there is always the mental element of players beginning to sit back if the game gets tight to take into consideration, as well as the emotional issue of them knocking out a team that has played in 3 of the last 4 Champions League Finals.
A part of me does believe United can turn this around in Spain, but I was very impressed with Bilbao and I know it won't be easy to do so.
The one thing I do expect to see is a few goals and I think taking the risk of seeing 4 or more goals is worth chancing here. Both sides are likely going to attack and have the players that can finish the chances they create, while there could be plenty of space to exploit as the game becomes stretched with 20 minutes left to play.
I would be surprised if there are only a couple of goals scored by that point so I think one of the sides will be chasing the game and have the potential to be caught on the break. The chances are that Bilbao will score at least once in this game, and that means United will need at least 3 to progress, something that should see the game open up and the overs to come in.
The Pick :
Athletic Bilbao 2-2 Manchester United
