Europa League
2012-03-08 - Sporting Lisbon vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Europa League, Last 16 First Leg
Thursday 8 March 2012 - Kick Off 6pm
This game is live on TV
Sporting Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon will look to do what domestic rivals Porto could not, and that is beat Manchester City over two legs to move through to the Quarter Finals of the Europa League. They know it will not be easy unless they at least give themselves a foundation to build on by earning a positive result from this First Leg at home.
The real problem for Sporting is that they are not as good as their domestic rivals like Benfica and Porto as judged by the fact that they are at least 11 points behind those sides. The team are 4th in the domestic League and they are unlikely to be plying their trade outside of the Europa League next season.
There will be some confidence that they can cause a surprise as Sporting have won all 5 games at home in the Europa League this season including a 1-0 win over Legia Warsaw in the last Round that earned them this opportunity. Sporting have won their last 3 games at home in all competitions, and they have only lost 1 of their last 18 games at home.
Jeffren and Rodriguez are unlikely to feature as they are suffering from a lack of match fitness, while Onyewu is still out.
Manchester City
Manchester City will feel they have a big enough squad to deal with the pressure of playing Europa League football alongside their Premier League title bid. They have already disposed of one Portuguese side this season and must be confident of beating a side that would be considered weaker from that domestic League.
The team continue to lead the Premier League by 2 points over Manchester United, but they may be a little more interested in the game at Swansea on Sunday which looks a tough one on paper. That is not to mean they will not take this game seriously, although they will have be aware that they have won just 2 of their 4 away games in Europe so far this season.
City have won 6 games in a row in all competitions since a 1-0 loss at Everton and they look to have recovered from a tough period of their season. They have conceded just 1 goal in their last 6 games and they have won back to back games away from home in all competitions.
I expect there will be some changes made to the City team from the one that beat Bolton Wanderers at home. Pablo Zabaleta and Yaya Toure are absent, but Micah Richards may return to the starting line up. It will be interesting to see if the likes of Sergio Aguero and David Silva are restored to the side or given a rest ahead of the game with Swansea.
Head to Head
This will be the first competitive game between the sides.
Prediction
In the last Round of this competition, I tipped Manchester City to win at Porto because I felt their price was very high considering the form they had displayed for much of the season. Now it seems the layers have had an over-reaction the other way as City are odds-on to win away from home just three days before a big League game.
My concern at backing City at these prices is the simple fact that they don't need to win this game and they may be satisfied with a score draw knowing they will feel very confident in securing the win to move through to the next stage at the Etihad Stadium.
Sporting are still a tough team to play in Portugal and they will surely be extra fired up to at least prove they are the equals of Porto by avoiding defeat, something Porto failed to do in both legs against City in the last Round. They have already held Porto to a 0-0 draw here and I expect they will look to make life difficult for City and try and keep themselves in the tie for the second leg.
I think this is a slightly risky pick as City are capable of winning games like these with the current squad they have. However, the absence of Yaya Toure coincided with a bad run of form earlier this season and I think a draw could be on the cards.
The Pick :
Sporting Lisbon 1-1 Manchester City
