ENGLISH FA CUP BETTING PICK - BIRMINGHAM CITY V CHELSEA

English FA CUP

2012-03-06 - Birmingham City vs Chelsea

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Birmingham City v Chelsea
Football: FA Cup 5th Round Replay
Tuesday 6 March 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV

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Birmingham City

Birmingham City have nothing to lose coming into this replay as they look to move into the Quarter Finals of the FA Cup, but they are far more concerned with the opportunity to return to the Premier League at the first time of asking following a relegation last season.

The team are still in the Play Off places in the Championship, but they have lost a little bit of ground on Southampton and West Ham in the race for an automatic promotion spot. Birmingham are 10 points behind the Saints and 9 behind the Hammers, while the majority of their games in hand have now disappeared. The Blues do have a 10-7-1 record at home this season, conceding just 10 goals in those games.

A poor run of results has seen Birmingham win just 1 of their last 5 games in all competitions, although a more positive fan would point to the fact that they have lost just 1 of their last 17 games in all competitions. The team have won 1 of their last 5 games at home, failing to win any of their last 3, and they have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 2 at St. Andrews.

Chris Hughton is likely going to make a number of changes to his first team as injuries are piling up in the squad with the League remaining a priority. The likes of Stephen Carr, Steve Caldwell, David Murphy, Peter Ramage and Caleb Folan are all definitely out, while Curtis Davies is a big doubt.

Chelsea

So the player power in the Chelsea dressing room seems to have put pay to Andre-Villa Boas' time at the club and that is a culture that needs to be changed if the team is to recover from a major setback they have suffered so far this season. There is still some rays of light for interim manager Roberto Di Matteo as the team remain in the FA Cup and can pick up some vital momentum from this game.

The Blues are 5th in the Premier League and find themselves 3 points behind Arsenal in the race for the final Champions League place after a really poor run has seen them struggling. They have a 5-5-4 away record in the Premier League this season, but have won at QPR in the FA Cup earlier in the competition.

It is the 3 wins from their last 12 Premier League games that has seen the side fall out of contention for the title and even struggle to keep tabs on those chasing a Champions League spot. Their overall form has not been any more inspiring with just 1 win recorded from 7 games in all competitions, with their major struggles taking place away from Stamford Bridge. Chelsea have won just 1 of 6 away games in all competitions, losing their last 3 in a row.

It is going to be interesting to see what kind of team Chelsea put out on Tuesday night, although I would be surprised if it isn't a strong one with this competition being their most likely source of silverware come May.

Head to Head

Birmingham City have a decent record against Chelsea in recent games at St. Andrews, losing just 1 of their last 4 against them here, including a 1-0 win last season in the Premier League.

However, the home side had failed to score in 5 consecutive games against Chelsea before last season.

Prediction

I would consider this a really tough test for Chelsea if Birmingham City were going to be at full strength, but I think the fact the home side is focused on other matters may just play into the hands of the away side who will want to prove that it wasn't the players that were responsible for the poor season they have suffered.

It won't be easy for Chelsea, but I think the fact that Birmingham are missing so many players will only aid them in this tough contest just days after a disappointing defeat at West Brom.

Birmingham will be more worried about getting back to playing League games and I think the fact that they are going to have to make a number of changes to their first team will only aid Chelsea.

It may only take a solitary strike, but I think Chelsea are just a big enough price to be worth chancing to at least salvage some pride and move through to the next Round of the Cup in what has been a poor season.

The Pick :