NBA Basketball
2012-03-03 - Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Saturday 3 March 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The reigning NBA Champions, the Dallas Mavericks (21-16), have really struggled to live up to the expectations of last season, while some of their new faces have also struggled, particularly Lamar Odom who will not be in the rotation on Saturday having missed the last 4 games with a personal issue.
Dallas have struggled and Dirk Nowitzki admitted that he has not managed to find the fire again this season after winning the Championship last season. The Mavericks have lost 4 in a row coming into this game and 5 of their last 6 as they look to avoid a couple of unwanted streaks.
They will look to avoid a 5 game losing run for the second time this season, while they haven't lost 3 in a row at home since the opening of the 2008/09 season.
However, Dallas have enjoyed plenty of success against the Utah Jazz (17-18) recently and will feel they can get back in the win column against a team that has lost 12 of their 15 road games so far this season.
Utah had a huge emotional win last night as they ended the Miami Heat winning streak thanks to Devin Harris converting a three point shot with 4.5 seconds left on the clock. However, that win was at home where they have enjoyed plenty of success at usual and they now go on the road for 5 games as they bid to get back into the Western Conference Play Off picture.
Paul Millsap was back for the Jazz last night, but Raja Bell is likely going to miss this game as he remains 'day-to-day'.
Head to Head
As I mentioned, Dallas will feel happy they are entertaining Utah considering they have won 17 of their last 20 games at home against them.
Dallas are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 home games against Utah.
The favourite is also 15-5-1 against the spread in the last 21 games in the series between these teams.
Dallas are 11-9 against the spread in their home games this season, Utah are 5-10 on the road.
The Mavericks are 14-14 against the spread as the favourite, Utah are 9-12-1 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Dallas are 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 home games as the favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
Utah are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog being given between 5 and 10.5 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the Dallas Mavericks to end their losing run with a bit of style and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Utah may come out a little flat having beaten what most people would consider the best team in the NBA with a three point effort and just 4.5 seconds left on the clock.
Second, the Jazz have struggled in back to back nights play, going 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games having played on the previous night.
Third, the Mavericks tend to dominate the Jazz at home, going 14-6 against the spread in their last 20 here against them and currently riding a 6-1 run.
Fourth, Utah just aren't the same team on the road as they are at home.
The Pick :
Dallas Mavericks 96-86 Utah Jazz
