Miami Heat at Portland T-Blazers | 2012-03-01 | NBA Basketball | Betting Pick by FirstDown

NBA Basketball

2012-03-01 - Miami Heat at Portland T-Blazers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers
United States: NBA Basketball
Thursday 1 March 2012 - Tip Off 3:30pm ET
10:30am (British Standard Time)

Preview

The Miami Heat (27-7) entered the All-Star break with the best record in the Eastern Conference and will be hoping the few days off from the regular season has not cooled them down just yet. Chicago have put the pressure on the Heat by winning on back to back nights to open the second half of the season, but the Heat are riding a 8 match winning run, with all the victories coming by double-digits.

Miami open up a three game road trip with a game at the Portland Trail Blazers (18-17) who were beaten by Denver last night and who have a huge game with Minnesota on deck, a game that could have some serious Play Off implications. However, it will not be easy for any team to come into the Rose Garden and leave with the W as this is one of the tougher environments to play in, especially when the Heat are in town.

The one thing everyone will agree on this season is that Miami are playing just as well as was expected of them when they first brought together LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. It took a season, but they now say the chemistry as good as it has ever been, while they remain one of the best defences in the NBA.

James particularly likes playing here at the Rose Garden, averaging 39 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists in his last 4 appearances here, all resulting in wins for his team.

Portland will be hoping they can bounce back from the defeat at Denver last night which has dropped them to just 1 game above .500 on the season. They are very much involved in a tight Western Conference Play Off picture, and are likely to consider this a less important game than the one against Minnesota coming up. However, no team in the NBA wants to lose to Miami and all the talk surrounding that team.

The Trail Blazers blew out Atlanta and San Antonio in their last two games, beating the Spurs by 40 points although they had rested all their stars in that game.

Head to Head

These teams have split the last 4 games in the series, with both teams losing their home games and winning on the road.

Last season, Miami came here and won by 7 points in Overtime, meaning they have won and covered the spread in their last 2 visits to the Rose Garden.

Portland are 12-6 against the spread at home this season, Miami are 9-8 on the road.

Portland are 3-7 against the spread when considered the underdog this season, Miami are 17-16 as the favourite.

Other Interesting Trends

Portland are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.

They are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog being given between 5 and 10.5 points.

Miami have won their last 5 games against the spread when set as the road favourite.

Prediction

We have seen some teams really struggle out of the gate in their first game since the All-Star weekend, but I am going to stick with Miami who were in such fine form before that break. My reasons are as follows:

First, Portland are 4-7 against the spread in their last 11 games after playing on the previous night.

Second, Miami and LeBron James have both enjoyed playing in the hot atmosphere that the Rose Garden generates and they should be fully focused after both James and Dwyane Wade were criticised for actions taken in the All-Star game.

Third, Portland have really struggled as the underdog in recent games. They are just 3-15 against the spread when set as the dog and that could indicate that the players drop their heads when going behind against a team they are expected to lose to.

Fourth, I want to ride the Miami streak that has seen them win 8 in a row and all by double-digits. Yes, the All-Star break may have cooled them down somewhat, but the layers have done well to tempt me by the spread they are offering.