Europa League
2012-02-23 - Athletic Bilbao vs Lokomotiv Moscow
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Europa League, Last 32 Second Leg
Thursday 23 February 2012 - Kick Off 6pm
Lokomotiv Moscow lead 2-1 from the First Leg
Athletic Bilbao
It all seemed to be going as planned in the first leg as Athletic Bilbao scored an away goal in Russia to take the lead, but they were undone by a second half comeback and now need to win at home to reach the last 16 of the Europa League. After recent performances here in their domestic schedule, Athletic will feel they can get the job done and earn a potential clash with Manchester United in the next Round.
The team are 4th in La Liga and have some real ambitions of reaching the Champions League qualifying stage for next season, although they do have Espanyol and Atletico Madrid breathing down their necks for that position. They have a 5-5-2 record at home in the League this season, and they are 2-2-0 in the Europa League here this season.
Bilbao have only lost 3 of their last 16 games in all competitions, although they did lose consecutive games with the first leg of this tie being the second of those defeats. They have been very strong at the San Mames Stadium, going unbeaten in their last 12 games here in all competitions and winning 10 of those. Athletic have been scoring goals for fun here recently, scoring at least 3 goals in 5 of their last 6 home games.
Javi Martinez was suspended for the game on Saturday but will be available here. This game is clearly one of importance as Marcelo Bielsa rested a number of first team players in the 3-0 win over Malaga despite being in a fight for a Champions League place in Spain.
Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow are not as famous as their neighbours Spartak Moscow, CSKA Moscow or even Torpedo Moscow, but they have enough talent in their squad to suggest they can complete the job in Spain having earned a lead back home last week. However, they have to overcome a history that has seen them lose in 4 of their 5 trips to Spain having never won in this country.
The Russian domestic League remains in its Winter Break so this will only be the second competitive game for Lokomotiv since December. They are 6th in the League and, while the League title looks beyond them, they will feel they have an outside chance of making a Champions League berth. The team brings in a 2-1-1 away record from their games in the Europa League so far.
Lokomotiv may not have played away from home since December, but it will be interesting to see how they reacted to their poor form on their travels before the Winter Break. The team had lost 3 in a row away from home in all competitions, and had lost 4 of 5, while they had conceded at least 2 goals in each of those losses.
It is expected that the Russian side will play the same XI that started the game last week and earned the 2-1 advantage.
Head to Head
This will be the first competitive fixture between the two teams in Spain.
Prediction
Lokomotiv Moscow are not going to be an easy pass for Athletic Bilbao, but I think the Spanish side are playing very effective attacking football at home and that could be enough to see them through this tough test.
Athletic have been scoring goals for fun at home and overwhelming their opponents and they do have the advantage of scoring an away goal in Moscow. They also made their intentions clear for this competition by resting players last weekend in their win over Malaga and they are in a position where scoring 1 goal here would shift all the pressure on to their opponents.
Lokomotiv have shown they are a tough side to face away from home, but they did concede 5 at Anderlecht in their last Europa League game and that defence can be exposed by Bilbao tonight.
Now I am going to back Bilbao to win this by a couple of goals as I think they are scoring enough goals at home to cause plenty of problems, and they may also be able to catch Lokomotiv short towards the end of the game if they are winning 1-0, or even if they have a couple of goals lead at that point.
I just don't feel Lokomotiv are good enough defensively to try and rely on earning a 0-0 draw here so goals should be on the menu. I think Athletic Bilbao may be on the right side of a 4 goal thriller tonight.
The Pick :
Athletic Bilbao 3-1 Lokomotiv Moscow
