Napoli vs Chelsea Betting Pick | Champions League

Champions League

2012-02-21 - Napoli vs Chelsea

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Napoli v Chelsea
Football: European Champions League, Last 16 First Leg
Tuesday 21 February 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV

Napoli

A couple of weeks ago, Napoli would have been the underdogs in this match, but recent results have seen people falling over themselves to go against Chelsea. However, there has to be some caution as the Italian side have not had a great season themselves so far as they look to return to the Champions League next season.

The team are currently 6th in Serie A, finding themselves 5 points behind Lazio in the final Champions League place. However, they have proved they are capable of competing against some of the best teams in Europe, having finished second in the group containing Bayern Munich, Manchester City and Villarreal. It was their 2-1-0 record here, including a win over City, that gave them the foundation to qualify for this stage.

Napoli had been on a rough patch of form themselves as they won 1 of their last 7 games in all competitions before winning their last 2 games coming into this one. The team are unbeaten in their last 6 games at home, winning 4 of those, and they have kept clean sheets in their last 3 games here.

Morgan De Sanctis should start in goal, but Hugo Campagnaro is unlikely to be taking part despite being included in the squad. Eduardo Vargas will be absent.

Chelsea

The pressure on Andre Villa-Boas increased another level as he saw his Chelsea side held to a 1-1 draw with Birmingham City in the FA Cup and there are some major rumours suggesting he will not remain in charge if they are knocked out of the Champions League at this stage. This trip to Italy could make or break Villa-Boas career at Stamford Bridge.

Things have really taken a turn for the worse for Chelsea in the last couple of months, with an exit from the Carling Cup coupled with poor Premier League form frustrating their fans. The Blues are still in line for making the Champions League next season, but they do have a fight on their hands from Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle United on that front. The team finished top of a group containing Bayer Leverkusen, Valencia and Genk, although they were 0-2-1 away from home in that stage.

Chelsea have failed to win any of their last 4 games in all competitions and they have won just 1 of their last 6. The team lost their last away game at Everton, but they had been unbeaten in their previous 7 games although winning just 3 of those games. They have won just 1 of their last 6 away games in the Champions League, although they have lost 3 of them.

Ashley Cole and John Terry are major doubts for this game, with the latter being less likely to return to the side than the former despite both needing late fitness tests.

Head to Head

This will be the first competitive meeting between the teams.

Prediction

There was a lot of value on Napoli winning this First Leg a couple of weeks ago, but Chelsea's continuous struggles has had people falling over themselves to back the Italians and they are now the favourites to win the game.

I still think Napoli are the more likely winners as Chelsea don't really seem to play like they know what their manager expects of them. They started the season trying to express themselves and began conceding too many goals, and now they are almost trying to play cautiously but making too many individual mistakes.

The Blues just haven't score enough goals in recent weeks to win games and I just fear for Andre Villa-Boas as it looks like he has lost the respect of the dressing room and that can only lead to more poor performances.

There is the concern that Chelsea are going to put in a really big performance soon, but I just feel Napoli will have the confidence in securing something to defend at Stamford Bridge in the Second Leg, and they definitely have the attacking players to take advantage of any lapses in concentration at the back from Chelsea.

It will be close, but the 2.40 is still just tempting enough for me to take the Italians and look for them to take a small lead back to London in the Second Leg.

The Statistics :

NAPOLI LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-11-22	W	2-1	H v Man_City
	2011-10-18	D	1-1	H v Bayern_Munchen
	2011-09-27	W	2-0	H v Villarreal




CHELSEA LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-11-23	L	2-1	A v Leverkusen
	2011-11-01	D	1-1	A v Genk
	2011-09-28	D	1-1	A v Valencia
	2011-04-12	L	2-1	A v Manchester_Utd
	2011-02-22	W	0-2	A v Copenhagen
	2010-12-08	L	1-0	A v Marseille