English FA CUP
2012-02-18 - Chelsea vs Birmingham City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: FA Cup 5th Round
Saturday 18 February 2012 - Kick Off 12:30pm
This game is live on TV
Chelsea
It was always going to be a transitional season at Stamford Bridge as Andre Villa-Boas was brought into the club as they look to move away from the old guard that have provided so much success to a new crop of players. However, the Blues would have still expected to be in the mix for the Premier League title, not fighting for Champions League place, in what has been a disappointing season so far.
Villa-Boas must be feeling the pressure as Chelsea fell out of the top 4 last weekend following another dismal display in the 2-0 loss at Everton. The Blues' form has been awful in recent weeks, but they have saved some of their better results for the FA Cup having beaten Portsmouth at home and QPR away in the previous two Rounds. They also bring in a 7-2-3 home record from the Premier League against a side from the lower Leagues.
The poor form I spoke about shows that the side have won just 1 of their last 5 games in all competitions, culminating in the defeat at Goodison Park last time out. Chelsea have picked up just 12 points from the last 30 available in the League and they have won just 2 of their last 5 games at Stamford Bridge, after blowing a 3-0 lead over Manchester United in the final 40 minutes of that game in their last outing here.
John Terry is likely to be given a little more time off to recover from his injury with the Champions League game against Napoli in mind. Ashley Cole is another that looks set to miss out, but the side will be boosted by the return of talisman Didier Drogba from the African Cup of Nations. Ramires will also be hoping to recover from his injury in time to play a part on Saturday.
Birmingham City
After all of the off the field problems suffered by Birmingham City following their relegation from the Premier League, it would have been easy for Chris Hughton and his staff to concentrate on them establishing themselves in the Championship this season. Many of their players from last season were moved on as the club could not afford to keep the wages on, but Hughton has found a way to inspire those left at St. Andrews as they look to make an immediate return to the top flight.
The team are currently sitting 5th in the Championship with 16 games left to play, and they are only 5 points behind Southampton in the automatic promotion spots with an extra game to play. Birmingham's successes this season have been based on a solid defensive platform, although they have had it tougher away from home where they are 4-3-7 in the League, scoring 24 goals and conceding 21. However, Birmingham can point to wins at Wolves and Sheffield United in this competition that helped them move through to this tie.
Birmingham come into the game on a 13 game unbeaten run in all competitions, winning 8 of those games, although there could be a concern that they have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 games. The Blues are unbeaten in their last 5 away games in all competitions, winning their last 4 while only conceding 1 goal in those games. I mentioned that the team have failed to score in 2 of their last 3, but they have been free-scoring away from home, reaching 4 goals in 3 of their last 4 away games.
Nikola Zigic and Marlon King are both set to miss this game, meaning Adam Rooney will be starting up front. Guirane N'Daw is out, while there are a few of the youth players included in the squad that will travel down to West London.
Head to Head
Chelsea beat Birmingham City 3-1 here last season in the Premier League.
That result means Chelsea have won 4 of their last 5 home games against Birmingham, including a 2-0 win in the FA Cup during the 2004/05 season.
Prediction
Chelsea have looked so far from the solid defensive team that people have come to know over the last few seasons and Andre Villa-Boas must be feeling the pressure of delivering what Roman Abramovich paid Porto £15 million for in the Summer.
They have looked out of sorts and there seems to be some dressing room unrest that is beginning to see their season spiral out of control. Usually I would be a little concerned that they have a big Champions League game on the horizon when it came to what kind of team will take to the field here, but I believe Chelsea will be looking for a shot in the arm and will take this game seriously.
Birmingham are having a very successful season themselves, but the FA Cup is not seen as a priority with automatic promotion being there for the taking for this surging side. Chris Hughton has shown his talent in guiding the Blues up the table and I think we will seem some rotation in his starting line up to keep players fresh for the final push this season.
They are missing their first choice strikers for this game and have been struggling for goals in their last 3 games, drawing two of those 0-0. I think they will look to be solid in this game, although they will not want the hassle of having to play a replay with fixtures piling up, even if the board members would be delighted for the additional cash it would bring into the club.
As I said above, I just have this feeling Chelsea will want this game a lot more than Birmingham and I think we will see a strong home team being sent out to do the business.
I was surprised to see the home side priced at a 'big' (relatively) price, but I think there could be a bit of value at backing Chelsea to win this one with a clean sheet to boot.
Chelsea earned a clean sheet in their last two FA Cup games, and had back to back clean sheets at Stamford Bridge before Manchester United came to town. I just feel Birmingham have had a few struggles in front of goal recently and will be missing two key players that could provide goals. Chelsea will need to defend set pieces properly, but could bring home the 2.25 if they do.
The Pick :
Chelsea 2-0 Birmingham City
