Eng. Championship
2012-02-18 - Southampton vs Derby County
A Sports Betting Pick by ArmchairPunter
Football – England – Championship
Saturday 18th February 2012 – Kickoff: 1500hrs
Second placed Southampton take on mid-table Derby County at their St Marys Stadium on Saturday afternoon as they look to knock West Ham off their perch at the top of the league.
Southampton (2nd)
HOME : 12-2-2 32/12
Southampton have won just once in their last five matches in the Championship, but in their defence they’ve had some pretty tough fixtures ie Cardiff City, Birmingham City, Burnley and West Ham, three of those four are in the top six, and they still remain in second place thanks to not losing (three draws and a win against Burnley).
So, the Saints still remain in a pretty strong position right now as they have seen off the top teams recently, and now host a Derby side who have won just once on the road in their last eleven away matches.
Southampton’s home record stands at 12-2-2 32/12, and seem to have overcome their mini-blip when they lost back-to-back to Bristol City and Leicester City, with a draw against Cardiff and a win against Burnley.
The Saints also possess a fair amount of strikeforce with leading scorer Rickie Lambert (14 goals, 6 assists), Adam Lallana (7 goals, 5 assists), Guilherme do Prado (6 goals, 7 assists) along with new signing Billy Sharp from doomed Doncaster Rovers.
Derby County (13th)
AWAY : 4-4-7 13/22
As mentioned earlier, Derby are on a poor run of form away from home, and have not won in their last four matches; draws against Burnley and Millwall along with losses against Barnsley and Reading have ensured that Nigel Clough’s men remain in mid-table and have undone their previous good work of four wins on the trot.
The Rams’ away record stands at 4-4-7 13/22, and they have scored only 3 goals on the road in their last five matches. Derby have never really been prolific goalscorers and this is evident when looking at their firepower; leading scorer is Theo Robinson (6 goals, 2 assists), along with midfielder Steve Davies (5 goals), Jamie Ward and Craig Bryson, with Ben Davies weighing in with 8 assists.
However, Brayford, Bryson and Gareth Roberts are all injury doubts for the trip south and will need to pass late fitness tests. If Bryson and Roberts don’t make it, it will be a pretty major defensive blow to the Rams.
The Betting Verdict :
The Saints have steered themselves through their recent tough matches and will certainly view this fixture as a must-win three-pointer – they have the firepower to outscore Derby and we could well see a 2-1 or bigger home win here.
The Pick :
Southampton 2-1 Derby County
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
