Europa League
2012-02-16 - Lazio vs Atletico Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football : Uefa Europa League round of 32, 1st leg
Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Thursday 16th February – Kickoff time: 19:00 GMT+1
Lazio
Lazio struggled in the group stage, even though they were considered favorites, they needed Romanian side Vaslui not to win their last match in Zurich in order to qualify, which of course they didn’t.
After a disappointing draw against Vaslui at Olimpico on their first match of the group, Lazio qualified thanks to the home victories over Zurich and Sporting, both to nil. They have actually kept a clean sheet in their last 3 matches in the competition.
Reja rested some regulars throughout the group stage, which could have cost him in the end, but his tactic eventually paid off as they progressed. Lazio will display their best squad in this one, however, there are some important players that will miss this game.
Stefan Radu and Senad Lulic are both doubtful, but may be recovered for the game, however, Lorik Cana, Andre Dias, Stefano Mauri and Tomaso Rocchi have all been ruled out.
Probable Lazio line-up :
Konko, Biava, Diakite, Stankevicius
Matuzalem, Ledesma
Candreva, Hernanes, Gonzalez
Klose
Atletico Madrid
Ex-Lazio player Diego Simeone turned things around at Atletico since he took over in the winter break and his team recorded some impressive results since.
In 2012, Atletico is yet to concede a goal in six league games, which of course means that they haven’t lost a game either. Given these excellent results, they should be confident enough to try and get a result here.
Atletico topped their group, despite facing some powerful opponents like Celtic, Rennes or Udinese. However, they lost the game on Italian soil against Udinese to nil (2-0).
Godin and Silivio were both doubts for their last league game and eventually didn’t play, so their participation here is again in doubt.
Probable Atletico line-up :
Perea, Miranda, Dominguez, Filipe
Tiago, Gabi
Turan, Diego, Adrian
Falcao
The Betting Verdict
Atletico Madrid won the tournament in 2010, beating Twente, Werder, Valencia, Liverpool on their way to the final where they defeated Fulham 2-1 in Hamburg.
Even though Italian teams haven’t registered notable results in this competition over the last decade, I have to assume that Lazio is taking the competition seriously since they are expected to display their best squad.
I can’t see Atletico winning in Italy, but their recent form recommends them for a draw at least, or a result that will keep them in the tie.
On the other hand, in six European games played this week, not one ended in a draw, despite many may have assumed that teams would settle for a draw and try to decide the match in the second leg.
I’ll go with Lazio to edge this one, but a draw is not out of the question either. I expect a 1-0 or 1-1 result, so those of you who are confident that Atletico’s defense is strong enough to hold off Lazio’s attacks could take under 2.5 goals at a decent price.
The Pick :
Lazio 1-0 Atletico Madrid
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
