AC Milan vs Arsenal Betting Pick | Champions League

Champions League

2012-02-15 - AC Milan vs Arsenal

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

AC Milan v Arsenal
Football: European Champions League, Last 16 First Leg
Wednesday 15 February 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV

AC Milan

AC Milan must be second guessing themselves as they meet yet another English club in the round of the last 16 of the Champions League having been beaten by both Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur in the last two seasons. Arsenal also came here four seasons ago and beat Milan as they have lost 3 in a row at the San Siro to English sides. The Italians may be top of Serie A, but there still has to be some trepidation as they get set to resume Champions League football.

The Rossoneri came 2nd in their group containing the European Champions Barcelona, Bate Borisov and Plzen, but it could have been oh so different if they had managed to earn a draw with Barcelona in the San Siro in an entertaining 2-3 loss. Milan showed their capabilities by earning a draw at the Nou Camp, but they will know they have to do a little better at home. The team have lost 4 of their last 8 home games in the Champions League, including their last 3 at this stage of the competition.

They did beat Udinese 1-2 at the weekend on their travels to stop a run of 3 games without a win, after coming from a goal down to win. Milan have failed to win any of their last 2 games at the San Siro in all competitions, although they had been 11-1-2 in their previous 14 games here.

Injuries had been hurting the squad, but Christian Abbiati, Alexander Pato, Alessandro Nesta and Kevin Prince-Boateng are all available after recovering from knocks. There are still some big absentees with the likes of Gennaro Gattuso, Antonio Cassano and Mathieu Flamini out, although Zlaten Ibrahimovic is available despite being suspended domestically.

Arsenal

This is the final game for Thierry Henry before he is due back with his New York team-mates, but the Frenchman did sign off on the Premier League with a winning goal at Sunderland. Arsenal are unlikely to be winning the Champions League this season with their defensive problems, but you never know if they can get through this tie and avoid some of the bigger guns through the draw.

Arsenal did not make the same mistakes as the last couple of seasons by finishing second in their group, but luck was not on their side as they were still drawn with arguably the toughest team they could have faced. The Gunners topped a tough looking group ahead of Olympiakos, Marseille and Borussia Dortmund, although they finished 1-1-1 in their away games. Arsenal have already won 1-2 in Italy this season when beating Udinese in the final Qualifying stage for the competition.

The team have won 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions and they are unbeaten in those games since a 1-2 home loss to Manchester United. Arsenal had been struggling on their travels recently, with the win at Sunderland being only their second in the last 7 away games in all competitions. The team have lost just 1 of their 4 away games in the Champions League this season, but they had lost 6 of their previous 7 before this season.

Johan Djourou has already been picked to replace the injured Per Mertesacker who went down at the weekend. Kieran Gibbs has recovered from injury, while Jack Wilshire remains around a month away from returning to the side. Thierry Henry is likely to start on the bench despite scoring the late winner at Sunderland.

Head to Head

These two teams met in the 2007/08 Champions League season in the last 16 with Arsenal winning the game at the San Siro 0-2, scoring both goals in the last 10 minutes of that game.

They also met in the 1995/96 European Super Cup- on that occasion, AC Milan were the 2-0 winners in Italy when the Super Cup was still played on a two legged basis.

Prediction

You can understand what Massmiliano Allegri is saying when he tells the media that his Milan side cannot afford to make the same mistakes they have in the last couple of seasons here at the San Siro when playing English sides at this stage of the competition.

It has to be remembered that while they have been beaten by English sides the last three times they have played at this stage, they have actually performed well in England where they have lost just 1 of 3 games... However, they have lost all 3 games at the San Siro so I believe it will be important for them to take some sort of positive result back to the Emirates Stadium in three weeks time.

I was a little disappointed when I saw Milan play against Lazio a couple of games ago, although I do think they have enough creativity to cause this Arsenal defence some problems.

Arsenal themselves could set up in a counter-attack formation and look to use the pace they have up-front to hurt this Milan side. I can definitely see the Gunners getting themselves on the scoreboard and I think we may see a game similar in style to when Manchester United won 2-3 here in 2010.

I feel both sides are going to get on the scoreboard, although I do have a slight worry that Milan may settle for the draw if the game is stuck at 1-1 with 20 minutes left to play. However, the 'Over' looks a little too tempting to me at the prices on offer and I will give it a go here.