Champions League
2012-02-15 - Zenit St. Petersburg vs Benfica
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League, Last 16 First Leg
Wednesday 15 February 2012 - Kick Off 5pm
This game is live on TV
Zenit St. Petersburg
Zenit St. Petersburg will be playing their first competitive game since the end of the Champions League group stage as the Russian League has been shut down for the Winter. They are leading in their domestic League too, holding a 6 point lead over CSKA Moscow, although there is still another two weeks before the League will reopen.
The team finished behind surprise group winners Apoel in the first stage of the competition, although it is still an achievement for them to reach this stage for the first time in their history. Zenit finished above Porto and Shakhtar Donetsk after beating both of those teams here at home, although they did draw with Apoel. That draw stopped a run of 4 consecutive home wins in the Champions League.
Zenit are unbeaten in their last 15 games in all competitions, although it is hard to talk about their form considering their last competitive game was back in December. They are unbeaten in their last 16 games in all competitions, although they are just 3-3-0 in their last 6 competitive games at home.
There are a number of injury problems in the squad, with the likes of Danny, Domenico Criscito, Bukharov and Darko Lazovic all ruled out through various illnesses and injuries. Vyacheslav Malafeev is the first choice goalkeeper and will need to pass a late fitness test, as will Roman Shirokov.
Benfica
Benfica are on top of the Portuguese League with a 5 point lead over rivals Porto, but they will be looking at this as a chance to really push on in the Champions League and reach the last 8 of the competition for the first time in 6 seasons. After finishing top of their group, this confidence would not be misplaced at the moment.
They finished ahead of Manchester United, Basel and Otelul Galati to earn the right to host the second leg of the last 16 at the Stadium of Light in Lisbon at a stadium where they think they will be able to complete the job if they can come back from Russia with a positive result. Benfica are unbeaten in their last 5 away games in the Champions League, and they won 2 of their 3 group games on their travels.
There should be plenty of confidence in a side that has won 11 games in a row in all competitions and Benfica have been a free-scoring side, managing at least 2 goals in each of their last 9 games in all competitions. Benfica have lost just 1 of their 17 away games so far this season, and they have won their last 4.
Javi Garcia has been ruled out after suffering a knock in training before the weekend game.
Head to Head
This will be the first competitive meeting between the teams.
Zenit may look to their 3-1 win over Porto in the group stage to inspire confidence in this match.
Prediction
This is a tough match to predict as the weather could provide a real equaliser for the fact that Zenit St. Petersburg have not have competitive football for 2 months since the game with Porto that got them through to this stage of the Champions League.
The onus will be on the home team to try and find a way to earn an advantage going back to Lisbon in three weeks time, but it could be tough for them to maintain their stamina for the whole 90 minutes as they look to get their match fitness back up to scratch.
Benfica have proven themselves a tough task by coming out of a group containing Manchester United as the winners of that group, and also having an 11 game winning run coming into this one. Jorge Jesus has indicated that he wants his time to win this game, but I also believe he will set his side out to make sure they do not concede too many goals.
It is going to be cold in St. Petersburg so it could be tough for the players in those kind of conditions.
While the Under 2.5 Goals was my initial lean, it has been understandably priced up fairly short, but I do like the look of Under 1.5 Goals considering the conditions and the lack of match sharpness for the home team.
It makes me feel a little better when noticing that 5 of the last 6 Zenit home games in the Champions League ended with 1 or less goals scored, including 2 of their 3 group stage games here this season.
With Benfica keeping 2 clean sheets on their travels in the competition this season, the conditions and expectations of the teams could see both settle for a goalless draw... At 3.25, I do like the look of Under 1.5 Goals here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Zenit St. Petersburg 0-0 Benfica
