Swansea vs Chelsea Betting Pick | English Premier

English Premier

2012-01-31 - Swansea vs Chelsea

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Swansea v Chelsea
Football: English Premier League
Tuesday 31 January 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm

Swansea

There were a few criticisms of Brendan Rodgers after Swansea were knocked out of the FA Cup at the weekend at Bolton Wanderers, especially considering it looks like an open competition this season with both Manchester clubs exiting in the early Rounds. However, the main focus for the team this season is to maintain their Premier League status and that would be as successful as an FA Cup run as far as the team is concerned.

The Swans are 13th in the Premier League after 22 games have been played, and they probably need another 14 points to ensure they are still playing at this level next season. The majority of those are likely to come from their remaining games at the Liberty Stadium where they are 5-5-1 this season, scoring 15 goals and conceding 6- no other team has conceded less goals at home so far.

The loss at Bolton means Swansea have lost their last 2 games in all competitions, both away from home, since winning 3 in a row and being unbeaten in 5 games. Swansea beat Arsenal 3-2 in their last home game, but they had won just 1 in 5 games before that... The only loss Swansea have suffered here this season was against Manchester United in November.

Brendan Rodgers made 10 changes to his side for the FA Cup game at the weekend, so the likes of Nathan Dyer, Scott Sinclair and Danny Graham should be restored to the side. Alan Tate could make his first appearance since August, but Josh McEachran cannot play against his parent club.

Chelsea

This has been far from the kind of season that Chelsea supporters have become accustomed to in recent years and there has to be some pressure on Andre Villa-Boas to deliver Champions League football for yet another year and potentially to also win a trophy. The battle for Champions League football is likely to really heat up as the final months of the season are played out with challengers ranging from Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle United looming.

Chelsea are 4th in the Premier League table, currently holding a 5 point advantage over Arsenal in the position below them although they would have liked to have extended that during the last round of games. The Blues are 5-4-2 away from home this season, scoring 16 goals and conceding 9, giving them the second best away defence so far.

The team have been in decent nick since a surprising 1-3 home loss to Aston Villa in the League on New Year's Eve. Since that loss, Chelsea have won 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions, the sole draw coming last time out at Norwich. Chelsea have only won 1 of their last 4 away games in the League, although they did have a 0-1 win in the FA Cup at QPR on Saturday.

John Terry and Frank Lampard have been ruled out with injuries, while Didier Drogba remains with the Ivory Coast at the African Cup of Nations. Ramires looks set to be on the sidelines for the next month as he came off with an injury at Loftus Road on Saturday.

Head to Head

Chelsea beat Swansea 4-1 at Stamford Bridge earlier this season, but this will be their first visit to this part of Wales since the 1983/84 season.

Chelsea won on that occasion, but they had failed to win on their previous 4 visits to the old Vetch Field.

Prediction

I am not surprised at all that the Chelsea price has been on the drift ever since they were released for this round of games in the Premier League- as well as they have done on their travels, it is hard to ignore the fact that they have struggled for goals and Swansea have been a real tough team to crack here.

Swansea themselves are not usually a team you would associate a lot of goals with, and that is borne out by the fact they have scored 7 goals in their last 6 games here.

I expect the home side will be able to cause plenty of problems with the pace they have in the forward players, but Chelsea have begun to defend better than they had been even a few short weeks ago. The absence of Terry could be key, although Gary Cahill will come into the side for his debut.

Goals look like they could be at a premium in this one, with both defences being in the upper two in the League in the home and away categories respectively. I really think this could be decided by a single goal either way, so I will take the 'Under 2.25 Goals' here.

The Statistics :

SWANSEA LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-01-15	W	3-2	H v Arsenal
	2011-12-31	D	1-1	H v Tottenham
	2011-12-27	D	1-1	H v QPR
	2011-12-10	W	2-0	H v Fulham
	2011-11-27	D	0-0	H v Aston_Villa
	2011-11-19	L	0-1	H v Man_Utd

CHELSEA LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-01-21	D	0-0	A v Norwich
	2012-01-02	W	1-2	A v Wolves
	2011-12-22	D	1-1	A v Tottenham
	2011-12-17	D	1-1	A v Wigan
	2011-12-03	W	0-3	A v Newcastle
	2011-11-05	W	0-1	A v Blackburn