NBA Basketball
2012-01-28 - LA Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Saturday 28 January 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The LA Lakers (11-8) feel they have turned a corner after an impressive win over the upstart LA Clippers last time out. However, they now go on a long road stretch as they play 8 of their last 9 away from the Staples Center, and they will look to rectify their 1-6 road record this season.
This looks a good place for them to start as they visit the ailing Milwaukee Bucks (7-11), a team that had started with 4 consecutive wins in front of their own fans but are now looking to avoid a 3 game losing run here.
It has been a surprising season for the Lakers, who come in having gone 2-4 straight up in their last 6 games. Many expected them to have fallen back towards the pack after missing out on a trade for Chris Paul and then deciding to get Lamar Odom traded to Dallas. There have been too many weak games from them, although they did look good against the Clippers last time out.
Milwaukee had a tough loss in Chicago last night as they fell apart in the third quarter before eventually losing by 7 points against one of the better teams in the East. It means they have dropped to 0-6 in games without star Center Andrew Bogut, with the Australian expected to miss up to 3 months with a broken ankle.
Drew Gooden filled in admirably in his absence, but it does mean the rotation is a little short of numbers, a tough place to be in a congested season.
Kobe Bryant could be in for another big game as he has averaged 33 points per game over the last 4 seasons in this building, his second highest total on the road in that stretch.
Head to Head
The LA Lakers have won 12 of the last 15 games in the series, including on their last 3 visits here.
However, they have struggled to cover the spreads, going 2-8-1 in their last 11 games in the series.
The Bucks have gone 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games at home against the Lakers.
Milwaukee are 3-3 against the spread in their home games, the Lakers are 1-6 on the road.
The Bucks are 6-7 against the spread as the underdog this season, LA are 7-6 as the favourites.
Other Interesting Trends
Milwaukee are 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games against teams from the Western Conference.
LA are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
However, they have lost their last 4 games against the spread when playing teams from the Eastern Conference.
Prediction
I am going to back the Lakers to record a big win on the road for the following reasons:
First, Milwaukee put in a huge effort last night against the Chicago Bulls and have to be a little emotionally flat after falling short in that game.
Second, with the team feeling a little deflated, it may be tough for them to overcome the statistic that they have lost their last 7 games against the spread when playing the second of back to back nights play.
Third, the Lakers have a good record here in terms of wins recently and I think they may just have found a formula to help them work in the win over the Clippers last time out.
The Pick :
Milwaukee Bucks 83-91 LA Lakers
