NFL Football
2012-01-07 - Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL
Saturday, January 7th, 2012, 4:30PM US
(9:30PM GMT)
PREVIEW
It is so important to jump on early lines if they stand out and I will admit I have this game at -3 when I took it, but I'm going to stick my neck out and suggest you get on Houston too, giving up the riskier -4. The previous game between these 2 suggests that might be a bad bet, but I think this one plays out very differently.
The game marks a first as both teams will have rookie QBs in the first round of the playoffs, which has never happened before. Andy Dalton has been brilliant under center for the Bengals and TJ Yates has been heavily instrumental in getting the Texans to this stage, giving them a great chance to earning their first playoff win.
Unlike the last game, Houston get to play this one at home, and I doubt they will fall behind like they did last time at Cincinnati. There will be no playing catch-up for them, which make me think this one could well be won by 7 or even 10 points!
Cincinnati are 9-7 and slipped into the playoffs but here's a funny stat. They have no wins over any of the other playoff teams they've played and just 1 win against a team with a winning record. Very telling.
Houston came from behind to beat Cincy 20-19 to get to 10 wins but then suffered 3 losses. They had already clinched a playoff place so that was expected. The Texans have lost 2 QBs but Yates has done very well since coming in, especially in that game against the Bengals, throwing a TD pass in the dying seconds for the win. He is going to have Andre Johnson to throw to here, and they also have a rushing attack to gain yardage and move the chains.
Houstons rush has gained 153 yards per game, 2nd best in the NFL. Arian Foster should bulldoze his way to more yards and should be able to add to his 10 rushing TDs when they are within yards of the end zone.
Houston have played the more difficult schedule and they have allowed less points and scored more. They are the better side here and with the team boasting the 2nd bet total defence, they should be able to frustrate Cincy, who will do well to score TDs here.
BETTING VERDICT
Houston will outlast Cincy in the end, and I feel they will win by 7. Take the Texans to cover the number.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Houston
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the Houston Texans -4 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
