English Premier
2012-01-04 - Everton vs Bolton Wanderers
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Wednesday 4 January 2012 - Kick Off 8pm
Everton
Everton have been inconsistent all season, but the job David Moyes is doing under financial constraints at Goodison Park has to be praised. They are unlikely to be troubling the sides for a European place, but a good Cup run could be on the horizon while a top half finish would be an achievement.
The Toffees fell into the bottom half of the table on Tuesday night as Sunderland won at Wigan, but could move up to 9th with a win in this game. They have had a hard time at Goodison Park, going 3-2-4 in games there this season, scoring 9 goals and conceding 10. Only West Brom have scored less goals at home so far this season than Everton.
Christmas has been a fairly productive time for Everton as they have picked up 8 points from the 12 available in the last couple of weeks. Everton have lost just 1 of their last 4 home games and they have gained 7 points from a possible 12 in that time. Goals have been a problem, with Everton only scoring more than 1 goal in 1 of their last 8 home games in all competitions.
Landon Donovon was brought in on-loan to give Moyes more options up front and he could come straight into the side in this one. Marouane Fellaini and Seamus Coleman look unlikely to make it back for this game, and Royston Drenthe will be a late decision.
Bolton Wanderers
After beating Blackburn Rovers 1-2 at Ewood Park to move off the bottom of the table in time for Christmas, I was expecting Bolton Wanderers would push on with consecutive home games against Aston Villa and Wolves, but that has not been the case for Owen Coyle.
A win for Blackburn at Old Trafford means Bolton are once again propping up the rest of the League, having gained just 13 points from their 19 games played this season. They find themselves 4 points behind QPR in the final position of safety, but could close that gap on Wednesday. Bolton are 3-0-6 away from home this season, scoring 12 goals and conceding 18, and they have earned more points on their travels than at home.
Bolton have picked up 4 points from their last 9 available, but that is considerably better form than when they lost 5 consecutive games in the League. The Trotters had lost 5 consecutive away games in the League before the win at Blackburn Rovers last time out, and they had conceded at least 2 goals in each of those defeats.
Jussi Jaaskelainan is a doubt for the game, but Darren Pratley is back from suspension while Gary Cahill is yet to complete his move to Chelsea and is set to start.
Head to Head
Everton had won their last 4 home games against Bolton Wanderers before a 1-1 draw here last season.
They have already won 0-2 at the Reebok Stadium this season as the Toffees look to complete the double over the Trotters.
Everton have actually won 6 of the last 8 games between the teams in the Premier League.
Prediction
I can understand why Everton are the favourites to win this game as Bolton Wanderers have really been struggling and look like they are destined to fall into the Championship. However, Everton have struggled for goals and they look a very vulnerable favourite considering their home record this season where they have won just 33% of their League games.
With that being said, I have no intention of backing Bolton who have looked really bad in recent games.
The one thing I have noticed in games between these teams is that there seems to be a lot of late goals, especially at Goodison Park. The last 3 games here has seen one of the teams score a goal after 80 minutes and I think there is a chance we will see another late one this time.
Everton have been scoring late goals this season, while Bolton have been having lots of problems defensively and the Paddy Power offer on the last goal coming in the 74th minute or later looks like one that could be worth chancing.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Everton 2-1 Bolton Wanderers
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Time of last goal after 73 minutes @ 1.92 (Paddy Power)
