English Premier
2011-12-31 - Chelsea vs Aston Villa
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 31st December - Kickoff 3:00pm
Chelsea
Chelsea beat City to get yourself back into the title race but then draw to Wigan and Fulham. Chelsea now sit 11 points off the table and the manager has said they are out of contention to win the league. This Saturday they host Villa and I think this could be a dire game.
Confidence that was built up after winning 4 in 5 has gone with 3 successive draws. The third draw not mentioned above was at Spurs (1-1) which was a decent game but Ramires, Drogba and Sturridge missed sitters in that game to win and it just sums up Chelsea's season.
Whenever they have needed to just "get it done" they haven't and with Villa setting up very defensively I can see the Blues becoming incredibly frustrated.
The Chelsea home form isn't great with 2 defeats to Arsenal (3-5) and Liverpool (1-2) as well as more dropped points this time on Boxing Day v Fulham (1-1). 6 wins from 9 is still decent but when you look at Man City's home form that's the benchmark to win titles and Chelsea is nowhere near that.
When scoring 2 or more (10 times), Chelsea has won 9 with the Arsenal loss the only time AVB's side has failed to win. With just 1 goal scored in their last 3 games it looks at though 2 is the magic number once again. Score 2 and they win the game for me. But will they?
Chelsea Team News
Essien, Ivanovic and Mikel are missing whilst Hilario and Bosingwa are doubts.
The lack of defensive cover is giving AVB some problems, Ferreira will start at right back with Luiz and Terry in the middle.
Ramires returns from suspension to replace Lampard, Romeu will start with Mikel out. Up top Torres did nothing (as usual) so Drogba starts supported by Mata and Sturridge.
Aston Villa
Despite Villa's draw at Stoke, McLeish's side have fallen another 2 places into 12th. That game against Stoke as with most Villa games was brutal on the eyes and the side has now failed to score in 5 of their last 7 games. On Saturday they face the poor defending Chelsea who I wouldn't back to keep anyone out, even toothless Villa.
The Midlands side has only the 1 away win but then again has suffered just 2 away defeats. 6 away draws is staggering but not surprising, McLeish won't complain if his side keeps picking up away points. His hard to beat approach has achieved 9 away points which ranks them 11th overall in the league.
Most sides struggle to pick up points by not scoring, but Villa are doing a great job considering the best you can hope for is 0-0. Villa have drawn a high 4 games 0-0 and when not scoring (7 times) to have 4 points is a decent return.
The defence has 5 clean sheets with 4 coming in them 0-0 results and the other in a 2-0 home win against Wigan. I don't think Villa can keep out Chelsea all game so they need at least 1 for a point. What is worrying is that in 18 games Villa has scored 2 or more in just 6 with just 2 of these away from home.
Aston Villa Team News
Baker, Beye, Given, Herd, Heskey, Lichaj and Lowry miss out with Bent a doubt.
McLeish will be hoping Bent recovers in time to join up with Agbonlahor up top. The England striker isn't having a great season but with Heskey out and Delfounso a very poor striker Villa really need him back.
Hutton is back from suspension but I think Cuellar will start this one given the clean sheet at Stoke. Elsewhere the side is unchanged with Guzan still in goal with Given injured.
The Betting Verdict
Villa have a good record at Chelsea avoiding defeat in 3 of the last 5 at Stamford Bridge. By doing so Villa has needed goals with a 4-4 and 3-3 in recent years but this side has scored just 3 goals in their last 7 games!
We know Villa will set out their stall and won't make it easy for Chelsea but I still see the home side getting at least one if not two this Saturday.
Villa potentially without Bent will be severely weakened going forward and if the Blues get one early they should win comfortably. However, Chelsea's poor defence has halted them all season and whilst I think they will win this I don't expect a big win.
I'm going to take a play on under 3.25 goals as I don't see Chelsea winning huge, likewise I don't see Villa creating much.
The Blues will be fired up no doubt to get back to winning ways but Villa is such a tough side to score heavily against. I see a 2-0, perhaps 2-1 and if it's dreamland 3-0 however I like this line as we could still get a Villa goal and cover. Home Win.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Chelsea 2-1 Villa
