Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks | 2011-12-25 | NBA Basketball | Betting Pick by FirstDown

NBA Basketball

2011-12-25 - Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks
United States: NBA Basketball
Sunday 25 December 2011 - Tip Off 2:30pm ET
7:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

It has been a long time coming, but the NBA is finally back in business as we have a huge festive feast on Christmas Day. It looked like we may not have got a season at all at one point, but now we have a compressed season in which many teams will be playing back-to-back games and having long road trips packed with games.

The second game on Christmas Day is between the two finalists that met one another last season as the Miami Heat travel to the Dallas Mavericks. Both teams will have serious aims of at least making it back to the Finals this year, although there are a queue of teams waiting to have their shot at them.

Miami have brought in Shane Battier to strengthen their defensive side of the ball and he should have a big impact and also is a capable shooter from 3 point range, something that the players around the 'Big Three' of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh will get their chances to do as defences focus on stopping these three.

I also think the Heat will get off to a much better start then they did last season as the players will no longer be under the same sort of pressure as they were last year. It will also be easier for them to get used to what they are going to do as they have had a year playing with one another, so I expect James, Wade and Bosh will feel a lot more comfortable in the offense.

Dallas had a huge season last year, surprising many by actually going on and winning the whole Championship, but they could have a tough time repeating. It might not be obvious straight away, but the loss of Tyson Chandler could have a huge impact on the team defensively, although they still have a deep roster.

It might be tough for the Mavericks to really focus on this game too as they will be raising their Championship banner during the opener. It has been tough for teams to escape the moment when rings are presented or when banners are raised and Dallas will look to avoid a let-down here.

Head to Head

Dallas beat Miami 4-2 in the Finals last season, going 3-2-1 against the spread in the games.

The Mavericks were 2-1 in games played in Dallas, but they were 1-1-1 against the spread.

Miami are now 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games played in Dallas.

The road team is 13-3-2 against the spread in the last 18 games in the series.

Other Interesting Trends

Dallas are 8-1-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as the underdog.

However, they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog being given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.

Miami are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite.

Prediction

I am going to back the Miami Heat to make a big statement about their intentions for the season by coming into the Champions backyard and covering the spread. I like the Heat for the following reasons:

First, teams that raise banners and present rings tend to have a hard time performing in the actual game they are playing, while Miami are going to be completely focused on setting a marker for the year.

Second, the Heat have kept their core and improved by bringing in the likes of Shane Battier, while I think the Mavericks have slipped a little now that Tyson Chandler has moved on.

Third, Miami were one of the strongest road teams in the NBA last season and performed well here in the Finals, just coming up a little short.