English Premier
2011-12-21 - Aston Villa vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Wednesday 21st December - Kickoff 7:45pm
Aston Villa
Despite Sunday's lackluster defeat to Liverpool, Villa remain in the top 10 of the table. The form under McLeish isn't great at the minute and whilst they sit in 10th place they only have a 6 point cushion over the relegation zone.
With 1 win in their last 5 games that 6 point gap could easily be gone over the Xmas period so they need to starting winning again as soon as possible. The problem for Villa is that high flying Arsenal are in town this week.
McLeish seems to have found a balance of winning against the poorer sides in the league whilst making his side very much defence first when they are on the road or against higher level opposition.
By applying this tactic, Villa at times have barely threatened the oppositions goal and have offered virtually nothing going forward. This has upset some of the fans and against Liverpool they were really poor as the Reds took 3 points at Villa Park without breaking second gear.
With 3 defeats and 3 wins at Villa Park, it's hardly a fortress. The wins over Blackburn (3-1), Norwich (3-2) and Wigan (2-0) are all again lower midtable/relegation sides and with all due respect, Villa should be winning these games.
However, losing to WBA (1-2), United (0-1) and Liverpool (0-2) shows that they can't cut it against the better sides. I'm speaking about the latter 2 there as the WBA defeat occurred when Villa went down to 10 men. But the point remains against United and Liverpool, they offered nothing going forward and both visitors didn't have to break to much sweat to grab the points.
Villa Team News
Baker, Beye, Gardner, Given, Lichaj and Lowry are absent for Villa whilst Bent and Herd are doubts.
With Heskey and Delfounso up front against Liverpool, Villa looked awful and will be hopeful that Bent returns. The good news is that Agbonlahor returns from suspension and he will offer a much bigger threat than the previous strike force.
Elsewhere the side remains unchanged with Dunne and Collins solid at the back. They continue to miss Given in goal and I feel for Villa facing these better sides without their experienced number one in-between the sticks.
Arsenal
5th placed Arsenal really gave a good account of themselves at the weekend in their loss to Man City. The Gunners had chances and looked a huge threat going forward, unfortunately they met Joe Hart in sensational form and the defeat leaves them 12 points off the top. This Wednesday they visit Villa Park knowing a win is a real possibility to get themselves back into the title hunt.
Sunday's defeat was Arsenal's first in 9 games with the previous loss coming way back on 2nd October at Tottenham. Since then the Gunners had won 7 drawing 1 and I won't look into the City result too much as that game was so open that no one would argue if Arsenal had won that game.
On the road the Gunners have been carrying a huge attacking threat scoring 17 in 8 games at an average of over 2 a game. Sunday's game was only the second time Wenger's side have been shut out away from home this season.
In their other 6 away games Arsenal has scored 2,3,5,1,2 and 4 goals so in just 1 of these games they haven't scored at least twice. Against a defensive Villa I can see the Gunners having plenty of the ball and with many attacking options will cause the Villa back-line problems all game.
Arsenal Team News
Abou Diaby, Santos, Fabianski, Jenkinson, Miyaichi, Sagna, Wilshere and Song miss out whilst doubts remain over Djourou and Gibbs.
Wenger may rotate his squad with the heavy festive period ahead but the main threat Van Persie should start. He will be supported by Walcott and Gervinho with a midfield of Ramsey, Arteta and either Rosicky and Frimpong replacing the suspended Song.
At the back with Djourou a doubt Miquel might get a start and will certainly be tested against N'Zogbia or Agbonlahor down the flanks. I think Arsenal might be vulnerable defensively but going forward they have a lot of attacking threat.
The Betting Verdict
Villa have not beaten Arsenal at home since 1998 with the Gunners winning 6 of their last 10 visits. I don't think a Villa win is on this Wednesday but at 1.80 I don't like the Gunners price. Arsenal should win but without Song and the threat of a few players rested I won't want my coin on the Gunners.
I really like Arsenal going forward and feel they can get a few goals against virtually anyone. The overs line is set at 1.80 but with Villa not scoring in 4 of their last 5 games needing 3 Arsenal goals to cover is a huge ask.
I'm going to keep faith in Wenger's side but on an anytime scorer basis. Van Persie is over even money to score against Villa and I feel if Arsenal are going to win he must score and whilst the wincast appeals, I won't be greedy, Van Persie anytime is play in a close Arsenal win.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Robin Van Persie to Score Anytime at 2.2 at Corals
