Italian Serie A
2011-12-13 - Genoa vs Inter Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Italy : Serie A
Tuesday 13th December - Kickoff 7:45pm
Genoa
Genoa climbed 7 places into 7th last weekend following their 2-0 win at Siena. This Tuesday they host the inconsistent Inter having lost their last 3 encounters at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris all to nil.
Alberto Malesani is going a good job with this side and overall they have a very balanced team, whether they are on the road or at home. With the 10th best home record and the 10th best away record, Genoa don't seem to change their style of play at all. Their won 3 and lost 3 from their last 6 games overall is a good example of this, you know with Genoa that they will go for it every game of the season,
When focusing on the home form, 1 defeat in 6 (0-2 to Milan last time out) is very good. The Malesani's side has recorded wins over Catania (2-0), Roma (2-1) and Novara (1-0) with the latter playing with 10 men for large spells. Surprisingly Lecce (0-0) and Atalanta (2-2) have left Genoa with a point but it seems Genoa lacks that killer edge when playing against the "big boys" and Inter despite their troubles will be a massive test.
Scoring goals is a problem, with just 8 in their opening 6 home games at well under 1.50 goals at game isn't going to scare many visitors. In their last 5 games overall, Genoa has also been shut out in 3 of them with 2 of their 3 goals scored in this period coming in the last 5 minutes of games.
I feel Inter will surely get 1 on Tuesday night and up against a side that despite playing tough will need 2 or more to win this and that has only occurred once in their last 4 home games.
Inter Milan
Ranieri's Inter visit the Stadio Luigi Ferraris this Tuesday following a good win over Fiorentina (2-0) at the San Siro last Saturday. With the Nerazzurri a staggering 13 points off the lead, the pressure is on for Inter to go on a long run and finally push back into contention.
With the table so close this year from midtable and below, like Genoa the Inter win last weekend pushed them up a huge 6 places from 16th into 10th.
Normally this side is very hard to beat and the worst you would expect is a draw. However, this season has been a disaster with 5 wins and 6 defeats from their 13 games played this season. Like Genoa, Ranieri's side don't draw many games with just 2 draws all season (1 at home, 1 away). I think with the pressure on, Inter will go for it on Tuesday night and this should be a really open game of football.
Looking specifically at the away form, Inter has a decent record 2 wins and a draw from 6 games. The defeats have come at Palermo (4-3), Novara (3-1) and Catania (2-1) but it's worth mentioning these were in 3 of their first 4 away games with the last defeat coming in October.
Ranieri's side has played 4 of their last 6 games overall at home which has helped but they did pick up 4 points in their last 2 away games winning at Siena (0-1) and picking up a point at Atalanta (1-1).
Unlike Genoa, Inter's games have goals galore with 21 goals in their 6 away games with Inter averaging and conceding well over 1.50 goals on their travels. They will go for it on Tuesday night and with just 1 away clean sheet all season I fully expect both sides to find the net this week.
The Betting Verdict
Inter have dominated the recent encounters with Genoa. They are unbeaten in the last 6 both home and away whilst winning 3 of the last 4 at Genoa to nil.
Whilst head to head is a guide it's not everything given the huge differential in variables on a match by match basis but I feel Inter has the edge here.
The Milan side has won 3 of their last 4 domestic games whilst Genoa before the win at the weekend had lost their previous 2. Genoa just don't have enough threat in front of goal to score at least 2 which will give them the points for me.
Inter on the other hand whilst scoring and conceding a bucket load of goals on the road has only scored twice themselves twice in the last 4 and they too may struggle to get that second and vital goal.
I feel the safest bet for this game is to back both to score at 1.833 with Ladbrokes which is nearly 20 ticks higher than some other price (VC Bet). I can't trust either defence to keep the other out and with Genoa and Inter both winning at the weekend, both should be confident.
I also like it that there's not many draws from the 2 sides this season so we should see a winner, possibly 2-1 either way but at 1.833 I much prefer to be on both scoring.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Genoa 1-2 Inter Milan
