Italian Serie A
2011-12-10 - Palermo vs Cesena
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football: Seria A
Venue: Stadio Barbera, Palermo
Saturday 10th December – Kickoff time: 20:45 GMT+1
Palermo (7th W-6 D-2 L-5)
Palermo is a team of contrasts this season in Seria A, despite winning 18 points from their 6 home games, the Sicilians were not able to score a single goal in as many matches played on the road.
Palermo will be looking to continue their impressive run on Stadio Barbera and they’ll also try to avoid another upset against Cesena. Last season Palermo was leading 2-0, but Cesena fought back and scored two goals in the injury time, Parolo in the 93th and Giaccherini in the 96th minute earning a point for the visitors.
Devis Mangia is likely to make two changes from the lineup that drew last stage against Parma, as Giulio Migliaccio (banned) and Ignacio Lopes should be replaced by Ezequiel Munoz and Fabrizio Miccoli.
Eran Zahavi, Igor Budan and Abel Hernandez are recovering after injuries and they are joined by Andrea Mantovani.
Mangia claimed that he’ll field Ilicic and 10 other players, but Miccoli after recovering from an injury could be at least as important for Palermo as the Slovenian, let’s not forget Miccoli’s goals in Palermo’s most important victory this season against Inter.
Probable Palermo line-up :
Pisano, Silvestre, Munoz, Balzaretti
Acquah, Bacinovic, Barreto
Ilicic
Pinilla, Miccoli
Cesena (19th W-2 D-3 L-8)
Few weeks ago Cesena seems helpless, without hopes to leave the bottom of the table, but things came around as they pulled off two consecutive victories and climbed a position, leaving Lecce on the last spot.
The comeback started when Parolo broke the deadlock on the dying minutes of the match against Bologna, a game that was heading for a draw. Adrian Mutu continued by scoring twice in their following match against Genoa, finally proving his class and deserving his huge paychecks.
Cesena then travelled to Turin with the clear intention of squeezing a goalless draw and their plan worked fine until Marchisio ruined their hopes by scoring with just 18 minutes to go. I don’t remember seeing a shot on Buffon’s target and I also can’t remember when I saw Mutu defending the entire match.
Daniele Arrigoni will be without Gianluca Comotto, Jorge Martinez and Giuseppe Colucci due to injuries, while suspended Francesco Antonioli is likely to be replaced by Nicola Ravaglia.
Probable Cesena line-up :
Rossi, Benalouane, Von Bergen, Lauro
Ceccarelli, Guana, Parolo, Martinho
Bogdani, Mutu
The Betting Verdict
We have a home team that won all their games at Stadio Barbera and managed to brake tight defenses like Siena’s (2-0) or Cagliari’s (3-2), scoring at least two goals in each match.
On the other hand we have a Cesena side that failed to score in 5 out of 6 away games (which were eventually lost) and only won once thanks to a 84th minute goal by Parolo in Bologna, which is still better than Palermo’s away record.
If they maintain their offensive strength (which they should with Miccoli returning) and score at least two goals as they did in all their home games so far, I can’t see Palermo not winning this match.
Cesena will probably apply the same tactic as they always do when playing on the road, closing up and trying to squeeze a draw or maybe even a lucky win, which is probably the cause of Mutu’s so called bad form. He is not likely to show his qualities in a system like this, despite everyone expect him to do wonders just because he’s paid 2 millions an year.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Palermo 2-0 Cesena
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Palermo to win at 1.67 at PinnacleConfidence: 8/10 (Main Bet)
Try Palermo to win to nil at 2.60 at Bet365
Confidence: 5/10
