English Premier
2011-12-12 - Chelsea vs Man City
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Monday 12th December - Kickoff 8:00pm
Chelsea
Following last Saturday's lunch time win over Newcastle, Chelsea climbed into the top 4 and trails leaders and Monday night's opponents Man City by 10 points. In my opinion Chelsea has no chance of winning the title this season and if they lose on Monday night that will be the nail in the coffin for me. However, if they win who knows it may make things a little interesting but I don't fancy to come good by May time.
Villas-Boas has had a good few weeks with Chelsea winning 3-0 back to back to back in victories against Wolves and Valencia at home whilst beating Newcastle at St James.
The good run of results was needed following some poor form that has seen Chelsea lose to Arsenal(3-5) and Liverpool (1-2) both at home as well as QPR (1-0)away. The gaffer has been under severe pressure and the Valencia game midweek was must win to secure qualification into the last 16 of the Champions League and his side delivered in emphatic fashion. This week they host City and really must win this also if they are to make up a huge 10 points deficit with two-thirds of the season to go.
At the usual fortress like Stamford Bridge Chelsea has struggled this season losing an incredible 2 times in just 7 games. Once upon a time under Mourinho this side went 2 years without home defeat not 2 defeats in 7 games!
Arsenal and Liverpool came to the Bridge and won in different mannors. Arsenal ripped Chelsea's high line all day whilst Liverpool exploited the high line for the first goal but were able to grind out a result. City i'm sure will go for the Arsenal way and just attack from off hoping to exploit the lack of pace in the Chelsea back line.
The Blues haven't drawn at home this season having beaten WBA (2-1), Norwich (3-1), Swansea (4-1), Everton (3-1) and Wolves (3-0). Scoring goals hasn't been a problem with 19 in 7 games at nearly 3 a game which is very impressive.
What is not so impressive for Chelsea is a record of just 1 clean sheet in 7 games but thankfully this came last time out against Wolves so maybe the defence is starting to gel.
Chelsea Team News :
Team news is that Luiz is suspended with Bosingwa (groin), McEachran (ankle) doubts leaving just Essien (knee) on the sidelines. Terry will start in middle along side Ivanovic with Bosingwa right back if he passes a fitness test.
Midfield may see Meireles picked ahead of Lampard whilst Romeu will start ahead of Mikel. Up top Drogba's recent form will see him start ahead of Torres with the very impressive due of Mata and Sturridge either side of the Ivorian in a front 3.
Man City
Manchester City continue to dominate this league winning 12 of their 14 games this season including two huge away wins at Old Trafford (1-6) and White Hart Lane (1-5).
Man City come to the Bridge a huge 5 points ahead of city rivals United and an even bigger 10 points ahead of Chelsea. I agree with Villas-Boas that a City win will kill Chelsea but I feel Mancini may settle for a point rather than go all out in this one.
I say that because Man City has had somewhat of a bad week by their high standards. Needing to beat Bayern midweek and hoping Napoli failed to beat Villarreal would have ensured their progression into the last 16 of the Champions League, however the side from Naples got it done at the billion pound spending City find themselves in the Europa League.
Mancini's side will be massively annoyed that they crashed out at the group stage and won't want to lose at the Bridge 5 days later to dent their domestic campaign as well. We have seen them attack at Old Trafford and White Hart Lane but at Anfield I thought the home side were the better of the 2 and City hung on towards the end of that game. As the games keep ticking by and City now with a lead it's more important that they don't lose more than go out and try to extend the lead especially away from home.
Away wins at Manchester United (1-6), Spurs (1-5), Bolton (2-3), Blackburn (0-4)and QPR (2-3)have been impressive but they have only kept 1 clean sheet on the road this year having also drawn at Fulham (2-2). I think Chelsea will score at least once against this side but with 24 away goals in 7 games I'm certain they will get at least one themselves.
Man City Team News :
Team news is that Kolarov (groin) missed out whilst right back Richards (calf) is likely to miss this one to. Zabaleta will start at right back in his absense whilst Clichy starts on the other side, Toure will drop out for Lescott and Kompany in the middle.
Going forward we may see Dzeko starting with Aguero with a midfield of Silva, Toure, Milner and Barry.
The Betting Verdict
Chelsea at home at prices of 2.50 screams out BACK to me but I can't back the Blues in this one. Being a fan I can't handle losing money and seeing us drop points whilst at the same time City's away price doesn't entice me either.
Chelsea really played well on Tuesday in a big pressure game but every week they give up at least 2-3 good chances and against Aguero and Dzeko they will be punished as Spurs and United have been earlier in the season.
I do feel that Chelsea will score in this one and with just 1 home clean sheet all season the Blues will give up one themselves. The both to score is priced at 1.67 and offers no value but it does look a huge chance.
I'm going to take a chance on over 2.75 goals as I feel Chelsea can't be trusted to hold City whilst Chelsea's counter attack game with Sturridge and Mata could cause Clichy and Zabaleta problems all night.
Chelsea has a good recent record against City winning 5 of the last 6 and 4 of these have gone overs. Chelsea and City don't draw many so I think we will continue that trend on Monday night and 2-1 either way really looks a possibility but with soo much attacking talent on the pitch I think we could see an epic. Hoping for a narrow home win.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Chelsea 3-2 Man City
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Over 2.75 goals at 2.10 at Pinnaclesports
