English Premier
2011-12-11 - Stoke City vs Tottenham Hotspur
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Sunday 11th December - Kickoff 4:00pm
Stoke City
The Potters climbed up 4 placed into 8th following last weekend's impressive win at Everton. Many felt balancing Europa League and the Premiership would be a step too far for this side but Pulis must be given credit for keeping Stoke in the top half of the table.
This weekend they face the high flying Tottenham Hotspur who will be a real test for the Potters. The good news is that the side is rested having had no European commitments midweek and in front of the Sky cameras will want to impress.
Surprisingly Stoke's home form at the Britannia has been poor by their high standards. With 3 wins from 7 and 2 defeats already, Stoke ranks 11th overall in the home form table. As a comparison this time last year, Stoke had won 4 of their first 7 home games and looked very strong at home. For some reason this time around the side has struggled to break teams down with their direct style of football.
In defence of Stoke's poor home form we must take into account the level of opposition to visit the Britannia. Chelsea, Man United, Liverpool, Newcastle, Fulham, QPR and Blackburn have been the visitors and we can say that the first 4 are top level opposition and it's no surprise to see Stoke winning just 1 of these games.
Stoke did win 2 of the games against the last 3 sides so it seems they have found their level in this division. Unfortunately, Spurs are part of the first 4 sides and that could spell danger for Stoke this weekend.
A lack of goals is a problem this season with just 10 goals in 7 home games this year equates to under 1.50 goals a game. That may not seem low but most top sides average over 1.50 goals a game, a good comparison is Blackburn a side in the bottom 3 also has scored 10 goals at home this season. This is not the sort of company you want to b compared to.
A real asset has been the amount of clean sheets (5) which ranks Stoke joint 4th in the defensive table. 3 of these clean sheets have come at home against Chelsea, Liverpool and Fulham so if they can keep them 3 out they should keep Spurs honest for 90 minutes.
Stoke City Team News :
Pulis has a virtual fully fit squad to pick from with just Collins and Sidibie on the sidelines. This means we can expect a similar side that has a back four of Wilkinson, Shawcross, Huth, Higginbotham whilst the midfield should consist of Pennant, Whitebread, Whelan and Ethertington. Up top Walters will play just behind ex-Spurs Crouch who will be highly motivated to score against his old club.
Tottenham
Third placed Tottenham continue to win and close the gap on those above them. With 10 wins from their last 11, Spurs are flying right now and trail leaders City by just 7 points whilst having a game in hand. This weekend they travel north to Stoke and if they can win here, something that Liverpool, Chelsea and Man United haven't done then I think we can start taking them seriously.
That may sound a little harsh but the season is very young and after getting comprehensively beaten by both Manchester sides this years Spurs has bounced back well to beat Liverpool and Arsenal. However, both were at home and I think in the reverse fixtures they will give back those points gained to their "top 4" rivals.
Redknapp must be given credit because you can only beat what is in front of you and Spurs have been cut throat at doing that. However, you can still get a big odds against price on Spurs not to finish top 4 which for me is a very good price that can easily be traded in the future.
Back to this game and Spurs visit with a great away record of 5 wins from 7 losing just once (at Old Trafford 3-0). Tottenham has gone to Wolves (0-2), Wigan (1-2), Blackburn (1-2), Fulham (1-3) and WBA (1-3) winning all these games in convincing fashion.
However, all of these sides are pretty poor apart from Fulham and when facing high level opposition in Newcastle (2-2) and Man United (3-0) they failed to win both.
Spurs have failed to score just once this year as we saw at Old Trafford in their first game of the season but since then have averaged nearly 2.5 goals a game which is very impressive. Up against Stoke's tight back 4 this weekend we could see a very interesting battle commencing.
At the other end they have 4 clean sheets which is good but only 1 was away from home at Wolves way back in September. Spurs have a outscoring mentality and won't win many 1-0 so we could see an entertaining game at the weekend.
Spurs Team News :
Tottenham will be without Bentley, Dawson, Huddlestone, Jenas and Kranjcar whilst Bale, Defoe, dos Santos, King and Pavlyuchenko have knocks who are rated doubtful.
With Adebayor on fire, the knocks to Pavlyuchenko and Defoe shouldn't have an impact on the first eleven as Van Der Vaart should play in behind.
The midfield of Parker, Modric, Lennon and Bale should start as Bale's knock is not serious. At the back King and Kaboul will be expected to deal with the aerial bombardment of Stoke but both are bug centre backs that enjoy an aerial battle and should cope with most of the danger.
The Betting Verdict
Spurs have had the upper hand of late winning on their last 2 visits to the Britannia by a scoreline of 1-2 and we may see something similar this Sunday.
I'm not going to back Spurs because I feel around evens they are very skinny given that they haven't won at a ground like Stoke's this season.
Instead I will have a wee wager on the draw as I feel Stoke will be really up for this one and if they get the first goal it will be hard to come back for Spurs.
The attacking threat is massive for the Londoners and they can/will score in most games this season and they should score again this weekend. However, Stoke has beaten Liverpool (1-0) and drawn to Chelsea (0-0) and United (1-1) here this season so we must respect them against the top sides.
A 1-1 draw looks a very good proposition to me and whilst I don't back correct scores this may be a runner this weekend. However, in terms of an actual fixed odds punt I'm on the draw at a nice price of 3.61 at Pinnaclesports.
Spurs may sneak a 1 goal victory but I feel they are massively due a "regression" and this is good time to go against them. Home team to salvage a point. Draw.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Stoke City 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur
