English Premier
2011-12-10 - Arsenal vs Everton
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 10 December 2011 - Kick Off 3pm
Arsenal
Arsenal have been in fantastic form for much of the last two months, and qualified through to the last 16 of the Champions League. However, Arsene Wenger is surely going to be keen for his side to continue racking up the wins at the Emirates Stadium and will not want to see too many games like the 1-1 draw with Fulham last time out here.
Results last weekend meant Arsenal moved up to 5th in the Premier League and they are only 2 points behind Chelsea in the final Champions League spot. It is unlikely that the Gunners will challenge for the title as they have spotted Manchester City a 12 point lead, although they do travel to the Etihad Stadium next week. Arsenal are 5-1-1 at home this season, scoring 13 goals and only conceding 5 which is surprisingly the 2nd best home defensive record in the League.
Arsenal have lost 2 of their last 13 games in all competitions, but both game in extenuating circumstances as Wenger had rested the majority of his starters. The Gunners have won 6 of their last 7 Premier League games, the exception being a 1-1 draw with Fulham, and they had won 5 in a row at home in the League before that result.
Andre Santos could join fellow full-backs Kieran Gibbs and Carl Jenkinson on the sidelines this week. Abou Diaby misses out, while Jack Wilshire and Bacary Sagna remain long-term absentees. The likes of Robin Van Persie, Aaron Ramsey, Theo Walcott and Thomas Vermaelen should all be restored to the starting line up.
Everton
The problem with having a small squad is that you cannot always find the consistency in performances from week to week as players get tired and there is not enough rotation taking place... This seems to be the case for Everton this season as they look to find some momentum for the busy Christmas period.
Everton fell down to 10th in the Premier League table following a surprise 0-1 home loss to Stoke City last week at Goodison Park. The Toffees have picked up 16 points so far this season, but that means they are closer to the relegation zone than they are to 7th placed Liverpool. Everton are 3-0-3 away from home this season, scoring 8 goals and conceding 8.
The inconsistency I spoke about in Everton's play can be seen from their recent set of results. They had won back to back games in the League before the loss to Stoke last week, but had lost back to back games before those wins. Everton have won 3 and lost 6 of their last 9 games in the Premier League and they have won 2 of their last 3 awway from home.
Sylvain Distin has a slight knock but should start in this game, while Royston Drenthe and Phil Neville are doubts.
Head to Head
Arsenal have not lost at home to Everton since they moved into the Emirates Stadium- their last defeat to the Merseysiders came in the 1995/96 Premier League season at Highbury.
The Gunners have won 3 of their last 5 home games against Everton, but only one of those wins came by more than 1 goal.
Prediction
I can understand why Arsenal are priced up as they are, and I perhaps consider them to be slightly overpriced to win this game, but Everton are a team that can cause problems for them and are a little hard to underestimate despite their poor run away from home.
So while I am uninterested in playing the win-draw-win market or the Asian Handicap, I was very much surprised to see Robin Van Persie being dangled at just under odds against to score at anytime in this game.
The 1.92 on offer at Stan James looks very much overpriced considering the run Van Persie has been on during the calender year. The player takes penalties and direct free-kicks around the area and has been very much a talismanic player for Arsenal all year.
Van Persie has scored 11 goals in his last 7 starts for Arsenal and I don't think his price would have been this high if his name was Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo or Wayne Rooney. That price looks far too big for the form the Dutchman has been in and I will take a shot.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal 2-1 Everton
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Robin Van Persie to score anytime @ 1.92 (Stan James)
