English Premier
2011-12-10 - Norwich City vs Newcastle United
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 10th December - Kickoff 3:00pm
Norwich City
The Canaries continue to surprise many pre season expects in their quest for Premiership survival. Lambert's side currently occupies 11th spot with a healthy 16 points which is good enough for a 6 points cushion ahead of the drop zone. Whilst the start has been encouraging, they can't afford to get comfortable and under Lambert's command I'm sure that won't happen.
This Saturday City host high flying Newcastle United. However, they may be in luck as United have been struck with some key injuries to their side and this seems as good a time to play them as ever (more on this later).
Norwich themselves have had patches of form going unbeaten for 3 games in October whilst winning back to back games in mid September. Its these little spells of accumulating points that has seen them build a nice cushion above the drop zone. However, current form isn't the best with 1 win in 6. The good news is that win came 2 games ago against QPR (2-1) so hopefully for them they have turned a corned.
Carrow Road is a tricky place to visit with just West Brom (1-0) and Arsenal (2-1) winning here. Wins over Sunderland (2-1), Swansea (3-1) and QPR (2-1) have been impressive as beating sides around "your level" is essential when it comes to to the relegation race. Unfortunately, I'd say Newcastle are a level above and this will be a really tough game on Saturday.
Scoring goals is essential in this division and having scored in their last 7 games, confidence is high when going forward. Morison is having a great season and has 4 goals in his last 5 games and will be the obvious threat to Newcastle's goal this weekend.
The problem for Norwich has been clean sheets, or a lack of them. In fact Norwich and Blackburn are the only 2 sides in the league still awaiting their first clean sheets of the season. With Ba and Best having great season's I don't think that stat will improve this weekend.
Norwich City Team News :
Team news for Norwich is that Martin, Vaughan and Ward miss out whilst De Laet is a doubt. Norwich have a solid lineup with Morison alone up top supported by Pilkington who has made massive strides after jumping from League One football to Premiership football. There are no stars in this lineup but they all are fully committed and suite Lambert's style of play. Norwich will really push Newcastle this weekend and I wouldn't be surprised if they get the shock home win that many are not expecting.
Newcastle United
Following the 3-0 defeat to Chelsea, Newcastle dropped 2 places into 6th this week but can't be too disheartened as they are having a superb season under Pardew. This weekend they face Norwich in an open game that could go either way and it's one that Pardew will look to win.
Newcastle had occupied 3rd place for 3 weeks before having a run of games against City (L 3-1), United (1-1) and Chelsea (L 0-3) and as you can see 1 point from this spell has seen them drop 3 places. Still not many will get 1 point from 2 away games at these elite clubs so the club can't be too downbeat.
The away form is very good his season with 3 wins and 3 draws from 7 games being good enough for the 5th best away record in the league. The Toon has only lost at the Ethiad Stadium in a much closer game than the 3-1 scoreline suggests whilst bouncing back the next week to draw at Old Trafford.
The wins have come at Sunderland (0-1), Wolves (1-2) and Stoke (1-3) with the latter two away games very tricky indeed. The success is mainly down to four standout players for me. Coloccini, Gutierrez, Ba and Best.
Coloccini has been sensational all season at the back whilst Gutierrez has not only covered a ridiculous amount of miles down the wing protecting Ryan Taylor at full back but going forward he scored one of the goals of the season at Wolves. Up top Ba and Best have 12 goals between them and have a great partnership together, unfortunately for Best with Ben Arfa back he may have lost his place in the side which for me seems a strange decision.
Newcastle United Team News :
Team news is where it gets bad for Newcastle. Last weekend the Toon lost Steven Taylor for the season whilst Coloccini also went off but is just a doubt for now. If he makes it he will be partnered by Perch who looked poor against Chelsea when coming on, whilst Newcastle will also be without key midfield duo Guthrie and Tiote for this one.
They join Ranger, Marveaux and Williamson on the treatment table as United will have to go deep into their squad for Saturday's game.
I expect Ba to start alone up top with Be Arfa behind. The midfield of Cabaye, Obertan, Gosling and Gutierrez is solid enough whilst the excellent Krul continues in goal.
The Betting Verdict
Until United's shutout last weekend to Chelsea (even now as a Chelsea fan, I have no idea how United didn't score - hit the bar 2/3 times!)the Toon Army had scored in the previous 9 games and will carry a big goal threat this weekend.
Norwich similarly has scored in their last 7 and with a combined clean sheet total of 1 in the two sides last 20 games combined it's hard to envisage a clean sheet in Saturday's game.
Whilst the price is a little short I think there's still value in Both Teams to Score at 1.70. However, I'm going for more juice and will try the overs market where over 2.50 goals is priced at 1.90 with Ladbrokes. The other bookies have this a few ticks lower so if you want to get on do it before they adjust their lines.
The last 5 home Norwich games have been overs whilst 3 of the last 4 have hit overs for Newcastle away from home. With an open game anticipated and Newcastle looking for all 3 points as Norwich are we should see goals. Overs for me.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Norwich 2-2 Newcastle
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Over 2.50 goals at 1.90 at Ladbrokes
