English Premier
2011-12-10 - Liverpool vs QPR
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 10th December - Kickoff 3:00pm
Liverpool
Liverpool have dropped into 7th place following their defeat at Fulham last time out. The side is now winless in 2 whilst their "Top 4" rivals (Arsenal, Spurs, Newcastle) continue to win around them.
Currently 5 points off 4th the pressure is on for King Kenny to return to winning ways. This Saturday's game against QPR at Anfield looks a good matchup for the Reds and it's a game that for me that must win.
Anfield has hardly been a fortress this season with 2 wins from 7 and 5 draws. Being undefeated is of course very good but just 2 wins isn't what you expect from a side pushing for a top 4 place come May.
The two wins came against Bolton (3-1) back in August and Wolves (2-1) in September. Since the Wolves game, Pool have faced some very good sides in United (1-1)and City (1-1) but also 2 promoted sides in Swansea(0-0)and Norwich (1-1). The former draws were based on good performances where the Reds had chances to win the games. However, both games against "lessor" opposition were poor and at times Liverpool rode their luck and could easily have tasted defeat.
It's been a similar tale all season as Liverpool have struggled against some of the lower sides in the division. The problem is a lack of clean sheets with just 1 all year against low away scorers Swansea. To be fair I expected United and City to score but Norwich, Sunderland and Wolves should be getting shut out at this level and the back 4 must step it up sooner rather than later. If not they will continue to drop points which come May will be very expensive.
Liverpool Team News :
Team news for Liverpool is that Doni, Gerrard, Lucas, Robinson and Spearing miss out with Suarez free to play despite an FA charge hanging over his head. Suarez will lead the line with most likely Carroll along side him with Downing on one wing and Bellamy on the other.
The loss of Lucas is huge so Adam and Henderson must step it up in the middle of the park. Reina will surely be determined to put in a good shift on Saturday following his blunder that lead to Fulham's late winner.
QPR
12th placed Rangers are enjoying their return to the Premier League and look a solid enough side at this level. The late summer transfers have added stability to the side and whilst this game won't be a great one for them, I think they will be safe come May.
With 3 wins from their 7 away games, the 9 points picked up on the road is the 9th best in the league. Rangers haven't drawn a game on their travels yet with Warnock adopting an all or nothing approach which has seen his side win at Everton (0-1), Wolves (0-3) and Stoke (2-3). Impressively 2 of their 3 wins have been to nil but if they are to win at Anfield I can't see it being done shutting the Reds out.
The 4 losses have come at Wigan (2-0), Fulham (6-0), Spurs (3-1) and Norwich (2-1) with the defence giving up 13 goals at an average of over 3 a game! The defence seems to either click or collapse away from home and whilst it has potential I don't fancy them to get it done at Anfield. The Reds need is greater than theirs and with 1 clean sheet in their last 9, Rangers may need at least 2 goals to take something from this weekends game.
Rangers have conceded 2 or more in 4 of their last 5 games and against a wounded animal that is Liverpool I fear for this side on Saturday. Rangers can definitely score one but two I don't think so and given the lack of road clean sheets and road draws I think this will end in a home win.
QPR Team News :
QPR Team news is that Campbell, Dyer, Hulse, Kenny, Rowlands miss out
whilst Connolly is a doubt. Cerny will start in goal with a decent back line of Young, Ferdinand, Gabbidon and Hill protecting him. Barton will need to have a good game in the middle of the park whilst Wright-Phillips will be a huge asset on the break. Up front Helguson plays alone and is likely to starved of service and support all afternoon.
The Betting Verdict
I like Liverpool to win this game but not 1.33 like! The price is unbackable in my eyes but I do like Liverpool to win this game.
Rangers keep conceding far too many with that stat of 2 or more in 4 of their last 5 a real concern. They are alos without Kenny in goal and he's been a key player this season whenever i've watched Warnock's men.
Liverpool have massively underachieved at home and are "due" to start winning soon. I hate backing teams on they are "due" but following a poor loss at Fulham last time out they surely will come back all fired up for this one.
I won't play the Asian market purely because I feel the win is more important than "covering the spread" so to speak. With just a few wins at home all season, winning by 2 or more is a tall ask for me.
Instead I'll take a chance on over 2.75 goals. Liverpool have just 1 clean sheet all year at home and QPR seem to throw players forward quite willingly all game. Given Rangers's lack of defence at the other end, Suarez should get/create a few chances and this should easily see 3 goals or more.
In the last 5 away games we have seen overs for Rangers but Liverpool's last 4 have been unders. I'm going to play overs because I feel Liverpool haven't been as clear cut in front of goal and if they all click this could easily be a 3/4-1 blow out to the home side. Home win.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Liverpool 3-1 QPR
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Over 2.75 goals at 1.925 at Pinnaclesports
