English Premier
2011-12-10 - Bolton Wanderers vs Aston Villa
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 10th December - Kickoff 3:00pm
Bolton
Second from bottom Bolton are really struggling this season and whilst we thought they would eventually come good, it appears the fight will keep going all year as they look to avoid relegation. This week they face Villa in a very winnable game but will Bolton continue to disappoint or finally make a stand?!
Often the home form is crucial to a teams Premiership survival so when I read that Bolton has just 1 win and 3 points from a possible 21 it doesn't inspire me to lay them in the relegation market.
In all fairness to Bolton they have had to face some of the better sides in the league at home. However, losing 6 from 7 is unacceptable and if Coyle still wants a job this must improve in the next few games.
Bolton lost their first 5 home games to City (2-3), United (0-5), Norwich (1-2), Chelsea (1-5) and Sunderland (0-2) at an aggregate score of 4-17 which is horrific. They did get their first and only home win against Stoke (5-0) but then returned to losing ways, slumping 2-0 to Everton.
Confidence must be low at the club with just 1 win all year and with 2 points the gap from safety, they could find themselves 5 points adrift come 5pm on Saturday which is quite big given we are nearly half way through.
Team news is that Davis, Holden, Lee, Mears, Ricketts, Wheater and Riley miss out this weekend. The side is quite settled and has been boosted by Cahill's red card being rescinded and he will skipper the side at the back. Klasnic should partner Davies up top with the impressive Eagles expected to supply the width on the left hand side.
Aston Villa
Villa continue to meander along this season in a very inconsistent manner producing a solid performance every 3-4 games as they struggle to get a good run going.
Currently occupying 9th in the league it's not all doom and gloom for Villa but when you watch them play it really is a struggle. McLeish has tightened up the defence but at a cost going forward and in recent weeks watching Villa has been hard work.
Results wise they haven't won in the last 3 games with 2 defeats and a draw whilst their away form isn't good, winless in 7 but they do have 5 draws. The draws emphasise just how tight this side is as they adopt a "not lose" approach as opposed to going for it. The fans are starting to become unhappy as Villa look toothless and they certainly won't want them holding back in this winnable game at strugglers Bolton.
In 7 away games they have scored 6 goals conceding 11 which isn't great given they haven't lost in 5 of their games. Villa haven't scored in their last 3 games and in their last 2 away games at Tottenham and Swansea. Whilst Bolton are conceding nearly 3 a game at home, Villa is averaging under a goal a game on the road so something must give this weekend.
Team news is that Baker, Beye, Gardner, Given, Jenas, Lichaj and Lowry miss out for Villa with the big loss being that of keeper Given. Guzan will step in for the Irishman whilst the back 4 is solid enough to keep Bolton's poor front 2 honest.
Going forward Bent and Agbonlahor have been starved of service as Heskey and N'Zogbia continue to struggle this season. With 312 minutes since their last goal I think Villa will go for it this week and against Bolton's defence they should get at least 1 on Saturday.
The Betting Verdict
Until last season's 3-2 victory for Wanderers, Villa has avoided defeat in the previous 7 games so they know how to get it done at the Reebok.
Bolton's current run of form is poor, not scoring in their last 2 whilst Villa hasn't score in their last 3! The problem is that at the other end as Bolton has conceded 5 in their last 2 whilst Villa has conceded a more respectable 3 in 3.
I'm going to take a chance on Villa to take something from this game as I can't trust Bolton to beat anyone right now. The unders is priced at odds against and it really is teasing me given 4 of the last 6 have been unders but I'll side with the Villians.
McLeish's side are tough to beat and has only lost at Man City and Spurs this season so visiting the Reebok shouldn't be daunting at all. The loss of Given isn't great but I feel against Bolton there should be plenty of space in behind which Bent and Agbonlahor should exploit with their raw pace.
This may not be pretty but I can't see Bolton being solid enough over 90 minutes to win this game and my bet is more a lay of Bolton than a back of Villa.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bolton 1-1 Aston Villa
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Aston Villa +0.25 at 1.80 at PinnacleSports
